"You don't like it?" "No I don't like it..."

So I’ve now slept on the Peavy trade.  

And I still don’t like it.

I don’t hate it and maybe I’m overvaluing Peavy.  But the Cubs just traded essentially the same pitcher, arguably a tad better, for a nice collection of bats and arms. The White Sox didn’t get anything close* to the return the Cubs got for Garza, despite the fact that Garza’s a free agent in two months.

*I usually use a mix of Keith Law and Fangraphs rankings for prospects. Neither one had Garcia in the top 100 in baseball (Law had him #2 in the Tigers depleted system and Fangraphs had him #4). However, Baseball America had Garcia as their 74th rated prospect heading into this year.

Okay, let’s say I am overvaluing Peavy because of his injury history. Then why in the world a the White Sox going after a guy who looks too much like Viciedo—only without as much power (so far) and better speed. Yes, as the Fifth Feather already reported, Avisail Garcia is not Miggy Jr. Why?Miggy at age 22 was in his third major league season, and racking up 5.5 WAR and 146 wRC+ in the major leagues; Garcia at age 22 is bouncing between AAA and the majors racking up a -0.3 WAR and a 72 wRC+. This really says it all: “This year, Garcia owns the highest BABIP at the Triple-A level. He also owns one of the highest swing rates, and one of the lowest contact rates.”

I get it, the tools are there. If he learns to walk, he’s going to hit for more power and all of a sudden he may be a borderline All-Star. I get that’s the thinking. But there’s not much in the Sox track record that anyone can point to where the Sox turn these toolsy/free-swingers guys into average major leaguers let alone All-Stars (Vicideo, Mitchell, Walker, etc).  The last thing the Sox needs is another toolsy/free-swinging outfielder, they’ve got, now by my count, seven of them: Vicideo, Mitchell*, Walker, Thompson, Hawkins, Jacobs and now Garcia.

*I know, he’s no longer a prospect, but he needs to be included because the Sox are way too in love with these type of players.

The Sox have a system that is widely regarded as one of the worst in the game.  They need help pretty much everywhere. Hawkins is the only guy with All-Star potential but he’s 19 and has a ways to go (I’m excluding everyone drafted last month). Sanchez, yes young for AAA, hasn’t hit at all there this year. Thompson’s cut the strikeouts a bit, but hasn’t hit for as much power in AA. Walker probably isn’t going to make it. Those four guys were considered the top four positions players in the Sox system heading into the year.  Sure Garcia now slots in behind Hawkins, but the Sox already have a bunch of Garcia’s and the results haven’t been all that great.  Basically the last thing the Sox needed was another toolsy outfielder. But that’s what they got. I don’t get it.

As for the other three guys the Sox picked up... no one seems too crazy about Wendelken or Rondon.  Montas has a great arm but can’t find the plate.  Needless to say, I fully expect the Sox will turn him into a decent pitcher because that’s what the Sox do. For all the crap I just gave them about their inability to develop positions players; they are pretty damn good at turning pitchers into solid/good/great major leaguers (Santiago/Quintana/Sale).  But Montas seems to be destined for the bullpen... so lets fire up the 2016 rumor mill where Reed is traded and Montas moves into the closer role.

I was probably too high on Peavy and what he could bring back for the Sox. Obviously Garcia’s got talent and I fully expect him to get a good run in September.  But I would have liked to see the Sox get someone who has three tools which will grade out instead of another guy with a crazy high ceiling and extremely low floor who plays the outfield.

Other thoughts:

--Others disagree, but I don’t think the Sox had to trade Peavy.  They didn’t need the savings. And if the deal wasn’t there, it wasn’t there. They could easily have held onto him and traded him in the winter or gone into ‘14 with Sale/Peavy as your one—two and see how things play out.

--The major positive? It is starting to look like Viciedo won’t be the starting left fielder for the White Sox next year. What happens with Rios today will obviously affect the ‘14 line up, but if Rios stays, your outfield next year is probably Garcia-De Aza-Rios. And of course even if they deal Rios, they can sign a right fielder or roll the dice with Thompson.  However, the Sox will probably need a first base/DH next year once Konerko mercifully retires and I guess Viciedo could provide cover there.  I’m not crazy about that, but whatever. It’d be one year.

--I love this trade for the Tigers.  They’re trying to win a World Series in the next two, maybe three, years. And this deal makes them better this year and moving forward. Iglesias provides two things: 1) he can field 2) he provides cover if/when Peralta is suspended by MLB.  I think the Tigers BABIP problems are directly related to the fact that they have two of the worst defensive infielders in baseball and a shortstop whose glove is okay at best.  Now they’ve got really strong D at both second and short, and for their sake, will hopefully turn seeing eye singles into outs.  Iglesias is young too.  Two years ago Keith Law was calling him the best defensive shortstop he’s ever seen in the minors and I don’t think that’s changed much:

 

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/IglesiasPlay.gif.opt_.gif

Sure he can’t hit, but the Tigers have Miggy, Prince, Austin Jackson and everyone else to do that. I think they’re the favorites in the AL and probably the Majors with this trade (assuming Peralta sits for Iglesias).  Oh, and they only gave up a free swinging, BABIP inflated, not even top 100 prospect for him.

--I really like the deal for the Red Sox as they didn’t give up much for a really good starter when healthy.  If Peavy’s healthy for the next year and change, the Red Sox are going to get the best player in the deal.  He makes the rotation better. And his contract is completely reasonable.  It may appear they’re giving up on Iglesias early, but really they probably sold high and they’ve got one of the top five prospects in the game to eventually play short.  Iglesias was going to get moved this winter anyway.  It doesn’t appear any of the guys in the minors they sent to the Sox will hurt them in the long run.  

Pre-Trade Deadline Thoughts

Thoughts on the Three Guys Most Likely to be Traded in the next 24 hours or so...

--With a possible Jhonny Peralta suspension* looming, the Tigers need a shortstop. I’ve already argued they need a shortstop who can field anyway, but if Peralta is going to be suspended, then they REALLY need a shortstop. Enter Alexei.  He can field.  The bat is done, but it won't kill you down in the order and since he can still field, he’s being paid fairly.  It’s not a steal by any means, but it’s not a bad contract either. And if you’re asking me why I’m trying to help the Tigers... I don’t know.

*My two cents on the Biogenesis stuff: MLB is way out of line and needs to slow their roll. I’m not saying I support PEDs in baseball, but unless these guys have tested positive, I’m not a fan of what they’re doing, which is the baseball equivalent of McCarthyism.

--It’ll be interesting to see if the Sox trade Rios and if so for what.  I’m all over the place in trying to figure out his value: a decent bat and a good fielder.  The good is that Rios has value, the bad, it’s not value that’s usually highly regarded.  And on top of that, he’s owed a good chunk of money next year with a team option in 2015.  That said, I looked at a bunch of past deals involving All-Star/near All-Star outfielders:

• [2006] The Milwaukee Brewers traded Nelson Cruz and Carlos Lee to the Texas Rangers for Julian Cordero (minors), Francisco Cordero, Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix.
• [2006] The New York Yankees traded C.J. Henry (minors), Jesus Sanchez (minors), Carlos Monasterios and Matt Smith to the Philadelphia Phillies* for Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle.
• [2009] The St. Louis Cardinals traded Clayton Mortensen, Shane Peterson and Brett Wallace to the Oakland Athletics for Matt Holliday.
• [2011] The New York Mets traded Carlos Beltran and cash to the San Francisco Giants for Zack Wheeler*.
• [2011] The Houston Astros traded Hunter Pence and cash to the Philadelphia Phillies for a player to be named later, Jonathan Singleton (minors), Josh Zeid (minors) and Jarred Cosart. The Philadelphia Phillies sent Domingo Santana (minors) (August 15, 2011) to the Houston Astros to complete the trade.
• [2012] The Philadelphia Phillies traded Hunter Pence to the San Francisco Giants for Seth Rosin (minors), Tommy Joseph (minors) and Nate Schierholtz. (2012)

Lee, Abreu, and Beltran are all better hitters, and thus are bad comparisons even if they couldn’t field at Rios’ level.  Holliday could, but was also a much better hitter.  Those trades were also all when those guys were in the last year of their deals.  

The first Hunter Pence trade (2011) he was hitting better than Rios, but isn’t the same fielder and was having a fluky season to begin with.  However, if the Sox are able to get a package similar to that of the Astros got, I’d be very happy. But it’s probably unreasonable that the Sox could turn Rios into two top 100 prospects—which the Astros did.  However, once you factor in age (Rios now is four years older than Pence then) and the contract the value of Rios is probably a top 100 prospect, especially if the Sox send/take on money in the deal. A top guy in the top 75 seems like a fair deal, especially when you consider that Rios isn’t a rental nor is his contract dead money.

*The Phillies did horrible in this deal; I still can’t believe the Giants gave up Wheeler for two months of Beltran.

--While I have no clue what the market for Rios will end up being and if they'll trade him, it appears nearly certain that Peavy is going to be traded.  His market if much easier to figure out since the Cubs just traded Garza, who is essentially the same pitcher but whose contract ends at the end of the years. Peavy is signed for next season at a reasonable/bargain price if he stays healthy.  I thought the Cubs did well, but not great, in their deal for Garza, and it’s reasonable for the Sox fans to think the South Siders can do better.

A few other deals with guys similar to that of Peavy:

• [2012] The Detroit Tigers traded Brian Flynn (minors), Rob Brantly, Jacob Turner and 2013 compensation draft pick round B to the Miami Marlins for Omar Infante, Anibal Sanchez and 2013 compensation draft pick round A.
• [2010] The Arizona Diamondbacks traded Dan Haren to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for a player to be named later, Patrick Corbin, Rafael Rodriguez and Joe Saunders. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim sent Tyler Skaggs (August 7, 2010) to the Arizona Diamondbacks to complete the trade.

The Tigers got Sanchez and Infante and in return gave up a top 40 prospect (Turner).  Peavy isn’t as young as Sanchez, but their numbers are similar and Sanchez was in a walk year.  Meanwhile, Peavy’s older than Haren was when he was traded nor is Peavy as good, but their contract situation are more alike. Skaggs and Corbin was a very nice return for the D-Backs.

Basically, the Sox should get a prospect back who is in the top 50, but really probably in the 30-45 range depending on if anyone else is involved in the deal.  Personally, I think the Sox should go for quality over quantity.  They’ve got a bunch of C/C+ guys in the system.  What they lack is top end talent. Adding two or three guys in the top 100 of all of baseball would be huge and set this team up for 2015 and beyond.

Oh and it’d make the rest of this season and next year a lot more fun to watch too.

Jake Peavy a Sox?

Sox Record: 17-22; The Sox have a -28 run differential.

Place in the A.L. Central and Games back: Fourth and 5 and a half out. The Tigers have caught a bit of fire... I'll take a look at them in a few days. I'm just happy the Royals are doing what I told you they'd be doing. Losing. But it's amazing what a two game winning streak can do.

Most annoying person in the Sox organization: Gavin Floyd -- he has sucked even if he's tipping his pitches.

Member of the White Sox I love the most at the moment: Paul Konerko who seems somewhat dead set to save this season. Konerko, Dye, and Buehrle are the only bright spots this year and the only reason why the Sox aren't in fifth. I've also got love for Brian Anderson because that means Brent "I'm not a Major League Player" Lillibridge isn't in the majors at the moment.

Rhetorical Question of the Day: So the big news is that the Sox have reached a deal for Jake Peavy. The deal is done so all that we're waiting for is Peavy to give it the okay. Since Gordon Beckham isn't part of this deal, I really really really really really want Peavy to say yes. I want Jake Peavy to be a White Sox for the next three or four years. However, until it happens, I'm going to hold off on the baseball stuff... [that said assuming Peavy says yes today I expect Peavy to start on Saturday against Pittsburgh. Jake is schedule to start on Friday for the Padres and Richard is schedule to go for the Sox on Saturday].

All this said... there are two reasons I want Peavy to say yes:

1) Because it makes the White Sox better in the short and long term. He's only 27 and has been pretty durable.

2) It would be the most awesome fuck you to Cub fans since those glorious days in October of 2005 (also known as the Month Jesus Came Back To Chicago).

Cub fans have been going around for months as if they are entitled to Jake Peavy even though their farm system is worse than the Nationals. To most Cub fans, the thinking was that it was only a matter of time before the Padres gave in and traded Peavy to the Cubs for nothing. Peavy would be wearing Loser Blue, it was going to happen. It was fact in their minds.

But here comes Kenny Williams getting a deal done for Peavy right under the Cubs nose. It's glorious. If Peavy accepts, he becomes a hero to Sox fans for this reason alone. If he turns down the Sox and ends up with the Cubs, he will then have to fear for the health of his right shoulder. Us Sox fans are crazy bunch. Disliking or hating the Cubs is a necessity... Jake should consider that... would he rather pitch for the White Sox and be loved on the South Side because he IS NOT a Cub or would he rather fear for the safety of his right elbow every day he lives in Chicago? Because if he does ever make it up to the North Side, there will be a lot of Sox fans in Daniel Plainview clothing.

Thoughts on the most bizarre between innings promo ever:

Blackhawks - Down 2-0 after losing an absolute heartbreaker on Tuesday night. The Hawks played with and maybe even better than the Wings, but a mistake by Campbell in OT lead to a 3 on 1 Nordic rush... Barker and Khabibulin had no shot at stopping the break. Great passing from the Wings, and everyone heads back to Chicago tomorrow with the Hawks down 2-0.

Is it over? No. But it doesn't look good. The good news is that the Hawks didn't play over their heads on Monday. They can easily come out there tomorrow and play better. The Wings don't have this series rapped up just yet. Let's hope the Hawks come out flying with the energy from the crowd which is going to be loud. Really loud.

But the Wings are also like the older, bigger, faster older brother... the Hawks always get close, but the Wings all end up winning. It's so frustrating. It makes me hate sports. But if we were to beat the Wings... it would feel so good... and that's why I keep coming back for more.

And two game winning streaks.