2014 Sox Preview: Who's Not Back

I threw out some predictions yesterday. Next? How about who isn’t back? Cool? That’s probably the best place to start.

If you bothered to follow the ‘13 Sox, then you know that Jake Peavy, Matt Thornton and Alex Rios were all moved in season. Since they were moved before the end of last season so there’s no need to talk about those three.

There are a number of guys who were on the Sox last year and aren't starting the year with the major league team, and thus I’m not going to focus on these players (e.g. Héctor Giménez is in the Sox system but he's not on the major league team, however, since he might see some time on the Sox at some point, no need to write “A Requiem for Héctor Giménez”. Sorry.)

Position Players

DeWayne Wise
Wise only saw 30 games and 66 plate appearances with the Sox last year. However, he managed to put up 0.1 WAR which made him the 8th best position player on the team in 2013. That’s hilariously sad and pathetic.
Will the Sox miss him? No. Wise has had a nice Sox career going back to 2008, but he’s a dime a dozen player.

Pitchers

Addison Reed
Reed was the Sox closer last year and was okay at it. His 3.79 ERA pretty much matched his xFIP. He stuck guys out and while he probably walked a few more guys than you’d like, he didn’t have a huge control problem. Reed’s young and still under club control for four more years, but the Sox we’re able to move him for a young, possibly above average third baseman who is under club control for six years. In what was probably Hahn’s best deal of the winter, moving a reliever in Reed and his soon to be more and more expensive contract (starting next year) for Matt Davidson was a bit of a no brainer.

Reed does have a bit of a flyball problem, and he was lucky with his HR/FB rate last year (6.8%) and BABIP (.260). The Sox seem to have sold high on Reed.
Will the Sox miss him? Not as much as you might think. Reed’s a decent reliever, but the Sox have proven year after year to be able to turn hard throwing young arms into decent relievers (Nate Jones, Dan Webb). Sure the bullpen took a bit of a hit by moving Reed, but it’s much easier to replace the value that Reed brought to the club than a 2 or 3 WAR third baseman.

Hector Santiago
Santiago ended up starting 23 games and giving the Sox 150 okay innings. He misses bats and there are some things to like since he’s only 26. But Santiago has control problems. He walked 4.35 batters per 9 innings. That’s not good. And the only reason why Santiago is still being given a shot in the majors is because he misses so many bats. Is there upside? Yes. If Santiago cuts his walk rate in half over the next two years, pumps that ground ball rate a few points while still striking out 8 or 9 guys per 9 innings, we’re talking about a borderline All-Star. But that’s a big if, and when you can grab a young centerfielder who gets on base you make the move.
Will the Sox miss him? Probably not, but depends on who you think is replacing him. Sure, Santiago gave the Sox 150 innings last year and decent value. But Erik Johnson should be able to replace Santiago’s innings and value, in fact, I think Johnson will be an upgrade over Santiago this year. Now if you always had Johnson penciled into the rotation with Santiago at the end of ‘13, then the Sox might miss him a little since Andre Rienzo has been a poor man’s Santiago thus far in his very early major league career and Felipe Paulino might not have anything left.

Gavin Floyd
Sadly, Floyd blew out his arm early in the 2013 season and the Sox were never able to replace his innings with anyone nearly as good. Gavin gave the Sox five solid years as a starter (with three of them very good). Floyd signed with the Braves this winter. Here is to Floyd bouncing back and pitching for another five or six years.
Will the Sox miss him? Nah. The Sox effectively moved on back in May when Floyd went down. So while it might have been nice to bring him back on a incentive based, one year deal, the Sox are better off figuring out what Danks is at this point, if Johnson is a someone who can hold down a spot in the rotation over the next half decade or more, and if Rienzo can figure out his walk issues, not to mention if there are any other cheap arms out there who can hold down a spot in the rotation (aka Felipe Paulino).

Floyd Hurt; Are the Sox Down for the Count?

Well, I’m not sure the Sox can recover from this one.

As you’ve probably heard by now, Gavin Floyd is out for the year and will undergo Tommy John surgery today. The good news for Gavin is the success rate for TJS is pretty good, so he will probably pitch effectively in the major leagues again. The bad news for the White Sox is that, they’re probably done in 2013.

I know, you’re probably saying something like, ‘Gavin Floyd, important piece to the White Sox season? He stinks most of the time.’ And there is some truth to that, Floyd’s never become a the #1 or #2 starter which warranted his number four overall selection in the 2001 Draft.* However, with the Sox, Floyd developed into a steady #3 or #4 starter, giving the Sox a lot of innings, strike outs and depth in the rotation since 2008.

* Interesting draft, btw.  Mauer, Prior, Floyd and Teixeria all went in the top five. Then no one of major note until you get to David Wright as a sandwich pick.  I think it’s safe to say that Floyd’s had a better career than Prior, however Prior’s 2003 makes it a fun conversation.

Floyd came into the year penciled in as the #3 starter and if Danks recovered, would drop to the #4 spot. You could figure that a healthy Floyd could give the Sox 11-14 wins, a solid K/9 and 180 innings.  You could also figure that Floyd would fall victim to a big inning in 60% of his starts usually because he can’t find the plate (Floyd does seem to have bad luck as his ERA and FIP/xFIP spreads have been interestingly unlucky with the Sox). These are the starts one tends to remember with Floyd.

But with Floyd now done for the year, the Sox are now left search for roughly 150 innings at a pretty high quality.

In a perfect world, Danks comes back from his shoulder issues, slides into the #3 spot and the Sox get a little bit better.  But this is overly optimistic.  Odds are Danks won't be who he was (at least right away) upon his return, which still may be a few weeks away.  

And it leaves the Sox with Dylan Axelrod in the rotation.  Axelrod has been great so far, but this won’t continue (see his .248 BABIP and 7.4% HR/fly ball ratio). Eventually Axelrod is going to get rocked, and it’s not going to be pretty.

The dream I had in my head for a while now is that the Sox ride out the Axelrod starts, Danks comes back, and then 2013 White Sox really get going in May and June as the 

bats come to life

weather improves. But Floyd’s injury pretty much kills this. Gavin’s been, on average, a 3 WAR pitcher, and sure Danks could easily give the Sox that... but again, they’re stuck with Axelrod as the fifth starter.

Now maybe the move is this: Danks returns in June, Axelrod moves to the pen and Santiago moves to the fifth spot. I like this move a lot more**, but again, this assumes that Danks is i) healthy and ii) as good as he was pre-injury.  These are two big assumptions.

** Am I oddly confident about Quintana? I sure as hell am! I don’t know what it is, everything about him screams “Oh no!” but he’s been pretty good for 170 innings now.  And his K/9 is up this year, which might be because everyone is striking out, but whatever! Quintana as a #4 starter isn’t the end of the world in the AL Central.

My worry going into 2012 was that the Sox wouldn’t be able to replace Buehrle’s innings.  Then Chris Sale happened. (And really, it became the Quintana show once Danks went down). Unless Santiago turns into an average starter, that’s not happening this year.  The Sox just don’t have anyone in the pen or in minors to give them the 150 solid innings they’ve just lost with Floyd’s injury.

This team already has dug themselves into a hole, one that only got bigger by blowing Sunday’s game against the Royals while the Tigers swept the Astros.  They are dangerously close to being in big trouble. Now, they’ve got to replace 150 innings, plus about 30 more until Danks comes back (if not more), at around a 3 WAR level.  For as great as Coop is, I don’t think he can pull this off.

Maybe it’s time to start planning for 2014.

And speaking of 2014... Floyd’s injury makes it a better than 50% chance he’s back with the Sox next year. Sure, maybe someone like the A’s or Rays gives him a incentivized one year deal, but seeing that he’ll start his rehab with the Sox, I have to think that Floyd—who is expected to be back around the 2014 All-Start game—might just re-up with the Sox in ‘14. It’s far too early to say if the Sox should consider this, but I’d make them the favorites to bring back Floyd next year.

Jake Peavy a Sox?

Sox Record: 17-22; The Sox have a -28 run differential.

Place in the A.L. Central and Games back: Fourth and 5 and a half out. The Tigers have caught a bit of fire... I'll take a look at them in a few days. I'm just happy the Royals are doing what I told you they'd be doing. Losing. But it's amazing what a two game winning streak can do.

Most annoying person in the Sox organization: Gavin Floyd -- he has sucked even if he's tipping his pitches.

Member of the White Sox I love the most at the moment: Paul Konerko who seems somewhat dead set to save this season. Konerko, Dye, and Buehrle are the only bright spots this year and the only reason why the Sox aren't in fifth. I've also got love for Brian Anderson because that means Brent "I'm not a Major League Player" Lillibridge isn't in the majors at the moment.

Rhetorical Question of the Day: So the big news is that the Sox have reached a deal for Jake Peavy. The deal is done so all that we're waiting for is Peavy to give it the okay. Since Gordon Beckham isn't part of this deal, I really really really really really want Peavy to say yes. I want Jake Peavy to be a White Sox for the next three or four years. However, until it happens, I'm going to hold off on the baseball stuff... [that said assuming Peavy says yes today I expect Peavy to start on Saturday against Pittsburgh. Jake is schedule to start on Friday for the Padres and Richard is schedule to go for the Sox on Saturday].

All this said... there are two reasons I want Peavy to say yes:

1) Because it makes the White Sox better in the short and long term. He's only 27 and has been pretty durable.

2) It would be the most awesome fuck you to Cub fans since those glorious days in October of 2005 (also known as the Month Jesus Came Back To Chicago).

Cub fans have been going around for months as if they are entitled to Jake Peavy even though their farm system is worse than the Nationals. To most Cub fans, the thinking was that it was only a matter of time before the Padres gave in and traded Peavy to the Cubs for nothing. Peavy would be wearing Loser Blue, it was going to happen. It was fact in their minds.

But here comes Kenny Williams getting a deal done for Peavy right under the Cubs nose. It's glorious. If Peavy accepts, he becomes a hero to Sox fans for this reason alone. If he turns down the Sox and ends up with the Cubs, he will then have to fear for the health of his right shoulder. Us Sox fans are crazy bunch. Disliking or hating the Cubs is a necessity... Jake should consider that... would he rather pitch for the White Sox and be loved on the South Side because he IS NOT a Cub or would he rather fear for the safety of his right elbow every day he lives in Chicago? Because if he does ever make it up to the North Side, there will be a lot of Sox fans in Daniel Plainview clothing.

Thoughts on the most bizarre between innings promo ever:

Blackhawks - Down 2-0 after losing an absolute heartbreaker on Tuesday night. The Hawks played with and maybe even better than the Wings, but a mistake by Campbell in OT lead to a 3 on 1 Nordic rush... Barker and Khabibulin had no shot at stopping the break. Great passing from the Wings, and everyone heads back to Chicago tomorrow with the Hawks down 2-0.

Is it over? No. But it doesn't look good. The good news is that the Hawks didn't play over their heads on Monday. They can easily come out there tomorrow and play better. The Wings don't have this series rapped up just yet. Let's hope the Hawks come out flying with the energy from the crowd which is going to be loud. Really loud.

But the Wings are also like the older, bigger, faster older brother... the Hawks always get close, but the Wings all end up winning. It's so frustrating. It makes me hate sports. But if we were to beat the Wings... it would feel so good... and that's why I keep coming back for more.

And two game winning streaks.