2015 NLCS: Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets

On July 28, 2015, the Chicago Cubs were 52-47. The New York Mets were 52-48. Both teams had allowed more runs than they had scored. Both were having nice seasons after years of bad. But neither team was in first place. The Mets were right behind a struggling Nationals team and the Cubs were way back behind surging Cardinals and Pirates teams.

The Cubs would go 45-18 from there on out (.714). The Mets would go 38-24 (.613) the rest of the way. The Cubs wouldn’t catch the Cardinals and have to play the Pirates in the Wild Card game (obviously they won). The Mets would catch and pass the Nats with ease. The Cubs beat the Cards in the NLDS while the Mets beat the Dodgers.

For both teams, I can’t really think of a single thing that went wrong all year until the Divisional series. The Nationals injuries and poor play allowed the Mets to hang around through the first four months of the season, and once they had the chance, they went for the jugular. Meanwhile, the Cubs didn’t have a significant injury other than some bumbs and bruises for Soler and a number of guys had career years. The Cardinals LOB% was about all that went wrong for the Cubs this year. The Cubs got revenge in the NLDS.

So what the hell happened? Are these teams closer to what they were the first 100 games of the year or what they’ve been the last 67 games? Let’s take a look.

Hitting

You’d think, “oh the Cubs have a huge advantage on offense over the Mets”. But you’d be wrong. The Cubs are a three true outcome team, only they don’t hit as many home runs as you’d think. In fact, the Mets hit more home runs (177) than the Cubs (171) in 2015. 

The Cubs do walk a lot, 9.1% (2^nd highest walk percentage in MLB) and they strike out a ton, just under 25% of the time (highest in baseball by far). Their .305 BABIP has saved them a bit since they only have hit .244 as a team, second lowest mark (and tied with the Mets) in the majors this year. The Cubs aren’t bad at getting on base, but they aren’t good either. And the wRC+ of 96 and wOBA of .313 are both below average. 

As you’d expect from a team that lead the Majors in strike outs, the Cubs swing and miss a lot. They were last in MLB in contact rate (74.8%) and ‘led’ the Majors in swinging strike percentage (11.8%). The concern for the Cubs is that there wasn’t a ton of power to back up such high whiff rates. The Astros, as a comparison, had a K-rate that was 1.47 standard deviations beyond the mean and hit the second most home runs in the majors; the Cubs’ K-rate, meanwhile, was 2.4 standard deviations above the average but were barely above the league average in the number of home runs. What saves them is that they walk a lot (and that slightly high BABIP). 

However, the Cubs line up was completely transformed when they called up Kyle Schwarber in the middle of July. He gave them a third big bat in the lineup, making life that much more difficult for opposing pitchers, and they’ve effectively played over .700 baseball since.   

2015 Offensive Z-Scores: Cubs and Mets

Team	HR	R	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	BsR	WAR
Cubs	0.23	0.01	0.50	1.70	2.40	0.23	0.60	-1.27	0.47	-0.35	-0.02	-0.05	1.48	0.99
Mets	0.42	-0.09	-1.42	0.29	0.36	0.35	-1.20	-1.27	-0.51	-0.24	-0.41	0.35	0.60	0.77

The Mets offense is not nearly as poor as one would be led to believe. They’re around average/below average in every offensive category. They don’t get on base as much as the Cubs, but that’s partly explained by a low BABIP (.287) and of course, a lower walk rate. However, the Mets actually had, ever so slightly, a higher slugging percentage as a team and bested the Cubs in wRC+.

Like the Cubs, the Mets lineup was transformed right around when they got hot by trading for Cespedes and calling up Michael Conforto. Conforto should start in left field, there really is no reason for Cuddyer to ever see the field other than as a pinch hitter. And for all the whining about the Mets bats in the first few months of the season, Wright, Granderson, Duda, Cespedes, d’Arnaud, and Conforto all had wRC+ above 130 this year. The Mets offense, while maybe not overly dynamic, is pretty good.

If anything, people are overrating the Cubs and underrating the Mets offenses. While the Cubs are better at getting on base, some of that was driven by BABIP luck. The only offensive area the Cubs clearly have an advantage is on the base paths. The Cubs are also an excellent base running team.

Defense

The understated and under-reported story about the 2015 Cubs has been their defense. The Cubs have been and excellent defensive team this year, and while they aren’t the Royals, a team UZR of 23.4 is one standard deviation above the mean. Bryant looks like he’ll be a good/solid third baseman for the next few years. Coghlan has been excellent in left and Montero has been good behind the plate. But much of the Cubs excellent defense has been driven by Addison Russell who is out with a hamstring injury. This is a big deal.

See the rest of the Cubs D hasn’t been that great: Castro has been fine at short/second and Fowler okay in center. But Soler has been bad in right. If Schwarber plays, it will be in replacement of Coghlan, and he is not a good fielder. And Russell’s replacement in the lineup is Javy Baez. We’re working with really small sample size here, but Baez hasn’t been very good at second or short in the majors. There is a huge step down in UZR from Russell to Baez. Something to watch.

There’s not a ton to say about the Mets D. There isn’t an excellent defender on the team, though Granderson is decent in right and Conforto looks solid in left. Cespedes isn’t a center fielder and their middle infield is slightly below average.

But what looked like the Cubs biggest advantage, defense, is now closer to a push with Russell out and Schwarber in left.

Starting Pitching

These are two excellent staffs. Man are they good.

The Cubs were second in the majors in Ks per 9, didn’t walk guys, and managed to keep the ball in the park. They did have some luck on their side, as a .285 BABIP would indicate, but the Cubs starters were pretty good at getting ground balls (where Russell would then scoop them up) and had the lowest FIP and xFIP in the majors. The story of the Cubs in the postseason has been their bats, but the reality is the Cubs had the best starting rotation in the Majors this year. They were led by pitching and defense.

The Cubs are going to throw Lester-Arrieta-Hendricks-Hammel in the NLCS. Hammel gave the Cubs a career year and Hendricks might have too. Arrieta had a second half for the record books, but for as great as he was, he had a BABIP and HR/FB rate where are unsustainable, however, Arrieta induced an insane number of ground balls in the second half of the season. Lester’s numbers don’t look nearly as good as Arrieta, but he was very good this year. This is a very good staff.

2015 Pitching Z-Scores: Cubs and Mets

Team	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR	ERA-FIP
Cubs	1.66	-1.67	-1.18	-1.11	0.35	0.57	-0.14	-1.40	-1.84	-1.96	1.74	0.16
Mets	0.74	-2.29	-0.44	-0.75	0.92	0.47	-0.21	-1.25	-1.28	-1.32	1.32	-0.54

But it might not be as good as the Mets. New York will throw Harvey-Syndergaard-deGrom-Matz and oh hey they all strike out more than 8.5 batters per 9. The Mets staff this year was very good leading the league in walks per 9 (ie the lowest rate). And sure, part of the reason they didn’t walk anyone was because of Colon, but Harvey, Syndergaard, and deGrom all had fewer than 2 walks per 9. These guys put the ball in the strike zone and most hitters can’t do much with it. And like the Cubs, they sported excellent ERAs and FIPs.

Bullpens

The Cubs bullpen has been pointed to as the weak point of the roster, but it’s actually been pretty good since Travis Wood was moved to the pen. Strop has had his struggles, but he’s been good (though helped by a crazy low BABIP) and Rondon has shut the door. One thing to note: the Cubs relievers seem to throw a slider or cutter that they bury into the dirt at about 60 feet. The Cardinals and Pirates could not lay off this pitch. Whatever it is, it’s a good pitch. But if I’m noticing it, so are other advances scouts. Watch to see if the Mets can lay off it.

The Mets bullpen hasn’t been as good. In fact, it’s pretty average. Colon is now in the pen which should help, but the Mets are going to go as far as their starters take them. The moment the bullpen enters the game, the Cubs bats could easily awake.

What Does It Mean?

Before I started writing this, I thought this was going to be Cubs in six. But the now? I’m not so sure. Russell's injury is big.

And... the Mets are a bad match up for the Cubs. New York's starters strike guys out and don’t walk anyone. The Cubs offense is susceptible to swinging and missing while relies on the walk to get on base. While the Cubs offense is more dynamic than it was back in June, the Cubs features five batters that strike out more than 25% of the time (if Soler plays). Sure if they get a hold of one… but this isn’t the Cardinals and their non-strike out producing staff. The Mets rotation might average 11 or 12 Ks a game.

The flip side of course, how are the Mets going to score runs? But here is where having Conforto and Cespedes may make the difference—the Mets lineup is suddenly deep with those two in there. The Mets have, with Duda, six guys with wRC+ above 130, the Cubs only three. Add Russell’s injury and the defensive downgrading the Cubs have in the outfield with Schwarber out there… and things aren’t looking nearly as bright for the Cubs.

Both teams turned themselves into really good teams in the second half. The Mets turned a so-so offense into a good offense. The Cubs meanwhile, grew into themselves a bit. But they also clearly played above their talent level over the last sixty or so games. At some point, teams that play .715 baseball come back down to Earth… I think it’s in the NLCS.

Prediction: Mets in six.

Sox, Angels and Cubs thoughts

Note: I've gotten bad at this... sorry, life is busy.

Sox

--I continue to somewhat enjoy this team. I have no clue why since they’re fairly frustrating, they play sloppy far too often, and are inconsistent. But I’m enjoying it for the most part.

I know it’s said in passing, but it’s pretty hard to take any talk of the Sox being in the Wild Card race seriously. They’re six games under .500 and have most of the league to pass. I, for one, don’t believe they are. And, even as they’ve “faded” in August, I still have no problem with the team not doing anything at the trade deadline, at the end of July, the Sox needed more time to fully evaluate if moving prospects for another bat was worth it this year. Standing pat was (probably) the right move, as I assume a good deal for Samardzija wasn’t there.

--I really like what I’ve seen from Trayce Thompson so far. I'm not sure if he's an above average outfielder, his glove will play a big role in that, but he's hitting lefties. Can't ask more from him than that.

Thoughts on Other Teams...

--I went to the Sox/Angels game on August 12th, and between that, the Sox playing them a bunch the last week and the Angels/Royals game being the Sunday Night game—I got a good look at the Halos and… they’re not that good. Yes any team with BASEBALLGODMIKETROUT is going to be good, but after Trout it’s Pujols and yikes. Kole Calhoun has put together a nice year for them and C.J. Cron can hit. But that’s it. It’s a pretty bad line up outside of Trout, Pujols, and Calhoun. The bottom of the line up sound (and hit) like a bunch of guys that were in “A Bronx Tail” (mainly because Johnny Giavotella is involved).

Their starters haven’t been good but they haven’t killed them either. I did like Andrew Heaney, but looking at his numbers, he doesn’t seem to have a knock out pitch. But all their starters have had luck on their side: all are running low BABIPs.

All in all, this is a poorly constructed team. Their bad farm system is rearing its head right now, as there just isn’t any young guys here after Trout. I’m not saying anything all that new here, but they’ve got a ton of money tied up in a lot of straight up bad vets right now, even the Pujols contract is bad despite Albert hitting well this year. They should probably tear everything down this winter, be bad in 2016, then reload for 2017 as a few contracts come off the books. Problem is I don't see any teams wanting anyone on the Angels after Trout.

The fact that they’re in the race for the Wild Card/AL West is a testament to how freaking good Mike Trout is.

--I watched more Cubs this year than I have in the last five years combined. This isn’t really because they’re fun to watch, it’s more that they’re not absolutely horrible to watch like they have been since 2010.

They remind me of the 2000 White Sox. A team that treads water for 140 games, but goes on a 20 game run where they get hotter than shit, nothing goes wrong, and use that to coast into the playoffs. Like the 2000 Sox, they’re young and a year ahead of schedule.

Like the 2000 Sox, they’re getting some great performances from guys you’d never think they would. Hammel and Hendricks are having Parque/Eldred like seasons. It’s unlikely they’ll ever do this again. There is more talent on the pitching side of things than the '00 Sox: Arrieta* is great and Lester has been fine despite what some idiot Cub fans say. And they’re getting a Herbert Perry type year out of Chris Coghlan right now. Teams need this stuff to happen in order to make the playoffs.

*Arrieta HR rate has increased from last year but still is below league average, and his BABIP has fallen slightly this year. He’s a good pitcher don’t get me wrong, but it’s unclear if he’s a great pitcher or just someone riding a nice 300 inning streak with some luck. But I’m nit-picking here…

The key for the Cubs has been Schwarber, who put the lineup over the top. Rizzo is great, Bryant has been fine, but that’s pretty much it. Schwarber added that third big bat in the middle of the line up, sending some of the brutal guys they’ve been trotting out there to the bench.

That said, this team isn’t nearly as good as their record indicates. It’s as much stars and scrubs as the Sox roster is when you get down to it. There are two key differences: (i) the Cubs are getting career years out of a few arms and Coghlan, and (ii) the bums the Cubs trot out every day can field, unlike most on the Sox.

And the Cubs do field well. Bryant will stick for a while at third which is huge for them. He’s not going to win a gold glove there, but he’s not going to kill them either. The moment his bat ends up in left/right, is the moment he becomes a lot less valuable (unless he fixes his contact issues). Addison Russell, who also has contact issues*, is a goddamn wizard with the glove out their. Montero, Denorfia, Ross, Fowler... all good gloves.

*This is a theme for the Cubs. Nearly every prospect/young player on the team has major contact issues. We’ve already seen Baez all but wash out. Bryant’s BABIP is the only reason he isn’t hitting .220 or something, same is also true of Soler, and even Schwarber has struck out a lot more in the majors than I thought he would. These guys are all young, some will figure it out a bit and cut down on the Ks. But some won’t… KKKKris Bryant is a nickname waiting to happen, if it hasn’t already.

All said, I’m bearish on the Cubs. I think they’ll make the playoffs because a four game lead this late in the season is a nice cushion. But longer term? Where is the pitching? Arrieta's never pitched this many innings, is he a 200 inning a year guy? (I’m guessing yes, but still has to be raised). What happens if Bryant strikes out 30% of the time with a .290 BABIP? After nearly 500 plate appearances, is this who Soler is (yikes if so)? Should we worry about Schwarber’s body as it ages (yes, this is more of a question for 2021)? Who is playing second base next year? Castro is owed $38m over the next 4 year years, who in their right mind is going to take that on?

There are some nice things going on over up on the north side of Chicago, but I remain skeptical. They don’t have as much payroll flexibility as I think most people assume, and nest year they'll need two more starters, an everyday outfielder, and arms for the bullpen. The Cubs are in a good position, but they’re not in a great position. I don’t think we’re looking at a late 00s/early 10s Phillies run or something here, but rather something more like what we've seen from the Nats.

Cubs, Sox, and Rossi, too!

Sox Record: 30-34; The Sox have a -27 run differential.

Place in the A.L. Central and Games back: Third place and 4.5 behind the Tigers.

Most annoying person in the Sox organization: Still Josh Fields.

Member of the White Sox I love the most at the moment: Ozzie... because he called Wrigley what it is: a dump. Fans treat Wrigley like a dump. For all the bullshit about how it's a "national landmark" and the "treasure" the truth is that the same fans that say it's the greatest place on Earth also treat the park like shit. If Cub fans actually respected Wrigley would they actually stand for the behavior that takes place there? And that behavior is some sort of combination of drinking, puking, pissing, yelling like a moron, not watching the game, and then crying after they lose... again. And again. And again.

Rhetorical Question of the Day: Okay, Cubs preview. I'm not sure how to break this down other than just to start rambling. I promise to put away my hyperbole fingers and think with my Milton Freeman Rational Cap.

1) Sox fans do not like Cub fans. There are a billion reasons as to why this is... one is that Cub fans are completely and totally insane. They haven't won the World Series in 100 years, yet fans convince themselves EVERY YEAR that they are going to win the World Series. They're delusional, totally delusional. Reality does not exist at Wrigley Field. TheRiot's game winning hit on Sunday? To the casual baseball fan, the park exploded as if the Cubs had just won the N.L. Pennate. Of course all that happened was that the Cubs broke a four game losing streak and managed to get their asses back to .500.

2) Cub fans don't really care about Sox fans... but then the Sox won the World Series in 2005 and now half of the Cub fans that exist sort of hate and resent us. They'll claim they were happy for us, and I'm sure that was true, but now it sort of grates at them. The other half, the other half that doesn't hate Sox fans? These people are NOT Cub fans. They're MidwestCollegeTransplants (MCT). MCTs went to a Big Ten, a MAC, or Ohio Valley School. They grew up in places like Columbus, Grosse Pointe, Edwardsville, or Middle'O'Nowhere, Iowa. They probably grew up either as casual Red, Indian, Tiger, Brave or Brewer fans. They have since switched allegiance and go to Wrigley to get drunk, puke, yell like a moron, not watch the game, and then cry when the Cubs lose again... and again... and again.

3) The most underrated Cub fan is the 73 year old grandma who goes to the local tavern and drinks High Life while watching the Cubs. These ladies freak me out if only because they don't act like nice little old ladies and can lose all rationality while watching the Cubs. Plus seeing a 71 year old, white haired lady, drinking a High Life at the bar is weird.

4) Remember, newspapers usually don't do statistics well.

5) Both teams come into this series in a state of confusion. The Sox are probably a tad worse than people thought, but I can't call them underachievers. Meanwhile, the Cubs have sucked the first 60 odd games of the year. Their offense has let them down, and the bullpen is a problem again. Their starting pitching has been their saving grace, however, they still lack a #1 pitcher or someone who can go out there and battle no matter what. The closest the Cubs come to that 'ace' is Ted Lilly -- but people are still pissed about Lilly's suck ass performance in the 2007 playoffs. Meanwhile, Zambrano continues to be totally, utterly insane and teams can still rattle him and get inside his head. Rich Harden has been a bust imo and further proof that you cannot trust any Canadian that does not play hockey full time. Between injuries and walking everyone in sight, I'm not sure he actually helps the Cubs since he can't seem to get past the fifth most starts. Ryan Dempster is also a Canadian and also proof that you cannot trust Canadians who do not play hockey as a profession.

6) Speaking of Dempster, he started the now infamous Game One of the 2008 NLDS which does not get enough media attention. The Cubs, who were the best National League team in the regular season, and their fans were pumped for this game. If you remember, Dempster was walking everyone in site.

7) If you want my opinion on why the Cubs are struggling and will not win this year here it is:

Soriano leading off takes their best bat away from the middle of the line up. If Soriano hit fourth, the Cubs line up would be pretty sick and much more difficult to pitch to. But Soriano's instance to lead off hurts this team... instead of going Lee, Soriano, Bradley (and eventually Ramirez) the Cubs stick Fukudome in the three hole. And we all know the Fukudome may be the most hated Cub in some time. The Cubs need Soriano's power down in the order, I think that's the easiest and best way to fix the Cubs. They can't unsign Bradley (who they should NEVER have signed in the first place), and unless they can deal for Chase Utley, there's little chance they they can find an upgrade at any position on the trade market. Moving Soriano is really the only option they have in 2009. Not that I want them to win... but it would be fun to watch them lose to the Phillies or Dodgers in the playoffs.

8) The Cubs haven't won a World Series since 1908. They haven't played in the World Series since 1945. Wrigley was built in 1912.

9) Prediction? I'll say the Sox take two of three. The pitching match ups probably slightly favor the Cubs, but the Cubs pen figures to blow one of the games.

The Most Hated American in America: George W. Bush gets the day off because... Giuseppe Rossi appeared! Under normal circumstances scoring two goals to lead Italy to a 3-1 victory of the U!S!A! in soccer would lead Rossi to be disliked by a the 100,000 soccer fans in the US. But Rossi was born and raised in... New Jersey and thus is an American citizen (I wonder if Rossi voted in 2008?). However, Rossi decided to play for Italy internationally because, well, he's good enough, probably would like to win a trophy that isn't the Gold Cup, and his father is Italian (which gives him Italian citizenship). Rossi spent the first 13 years here in the USA and probably orders heroes from the place catty corner from wooder plant while listening to Bon Jovi. I'm sure he fits in with these guys...

I didn't see the game. It sounded like the US got a bogus red card, went up 1-0, then got taken apart in the second half. Now they have their work cut out for them to advance to the next round of the Confederations Cup.

As for Rossi... until he starts doing American Apparel ads, I can't hate on the kid. Sure it'd be nice if he'd play for the country he was born in and lived in, but it's within his right to play for Italy. You win some (Freddy Adu) and you lose some (Rossi and the Serbian kid, Neven Subotic). However, with the US dying for an American born soccer star... wouldn't it be in some young kids interest to play for the USA? Seeing how much press Adu got when he was a teenager and how much money Beckham got, wouldn't being the first American soccer star be a lot of money in the bank? Rossi won't be endorsing anything here in the U.S.A. because he decided to play for Italy. But with his talent... wouldn't he have a ton of offers if he did play for the USA? Or is this wishful thinking on my part?

Here Come the Sox!

Sox Record: 24-25; The Sox have a -14 run differential.

Place in the A.L. Central and Games back: Some how the Sox are in second and four games back of the Tigers.

Most annoying person in the Sox organization: The Sox are playing well, so it's hard to be that annoyed with anyone other than National League pitchers who refuse to pitch for the White Sox for reasons I can't figure out. The Sox are a good team, good/great organization, they win games, they win World Series, it's a good market in a great town... if it's for family reasons, then I can't say these guys are making mistakes, but if it's to protect their stats... well fuck 'em.

Member of the White Sox I love the most at the moment: Pods, who apparently thinks it's the first half of 2005... he's getting on base and scoring runs. And it's lead to the Sox playing really really really well. Seriously, this is the most amazing come back in my White Sox lifetime. Even if it only lasts a few more weeks, he's been just what the doctor ordered, and then some, for the White Sox. I can't believe I'm typing this. At no point in March or April did I ever think I would be writing about Scott Podsednik playing well and being just want the Sox needed. If for no other reason than HE WASN'T EVEN ON THE TEAM.

Rhetorical Question of the Day: Sunday's game, which I was looking forward to because of the Danks/Greinke pitching match up, turned out not to be much of a pitching match up. Danks struggled and didn't really have it. However, he fought and battled and if it wasn't for Alexei totally misplaying a pop up behind second, things wouldn't have been as bad. But after Alexei's drop/miss, the Sox were down 4-1 to the Royals and the best pitcher in the majors during the first two months of the season. But the Sox battled, Josh Fields! got a huge two out, two strike single to make it 4-3 in the 3rd. Then Pods reached and scored on a Dye blooper. Tie game 4-4 going to the bottom of the 4th. And better yet, Greinke had thrown 90 odd pitches though the first four innings. Of course the Sox then managed to see all of 12 pitches in the next three innings.

I'm not sure what happened to this team a few weeks ago, but something happened. They're no longer lifeless. It's helped that Alexei has been much better than he was the first six weeks of the season. And Konerko/Dye/Thome has gotten the job done as St. Carlos of Quentin struggles with a foot injury. But it's been, again I can't believe I'm typing this, Scott Podsednik's ability to get on base at the top of the order that's been a huge difference. It's impossible to win with out good pitching. It's hard to win with out a middle of the order OR a good lead off guy. Now, I know that Pods can't keep this up, but this is just amazing. Four years after Pods gets on, Iguchi takes a few pitches as Pods seals second, then Iguchi gets him to third and Konerko/Dye find a way to get Pods home for a 1-0 Sox lead... it's happening all over again! Now if we can figure out second/third (I assume Gordon Beckham will take over one of those positions in July), this team has a shot. Because we all know Kenny is going to land some more pitching by July 31st...

In Other News: The lady survived the Titanic, lived for 97 years, and still never saw the Cubs win the World Series. RIP Millvina Dean.

Thoughts on the most bizarre between innings promo ever:

Blackhawks - I never rapped up the Hawks season. And what can I say. The Red Wings are really good. They were better than the Hawks, end of story.

That said, what a great year for the Hawks. I loved this team and it was the most fun I had watching a team since the 2005 White Sox. So kudos to the Blackhawks... I can't wait until October.