2015 NLCS: Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets

On July 28, 2015, the Chicago Cubs were 52-47. The New York Mets were 52-48. Both teams had allowed more runs than they had scored. Both were having nice seasons after years of bad. But neither team was in first place. The Mets were right behind a struggling Nationals team and the Cubs were way back behind surging Cardinals and Pirates teams.

The Cubs would go 45-18 from there on out (.714). The Mets would go 38-24 (.613) the rest of the way. The Cubs wouldn’t catch the Cardinals and have to play the Pirates in the Wild Card game (obviously they won). The Mets would catch and pass the Nats with ease. The Cubs beat the Cards in the NLDS while the Mets beat the Dodgers.

For both teams, I can’t really think of a single thing that went wrong all year until the Divisional series. The Nationals injuries and poor play allowed the Mets to hang around through the first four months of the season, and once they had the chance, they went for the jugular. Meanwhile, the Cubs didn’t have a significant injury other than some bumbs and bruises for Soler and a number of guys had career years. The Cardinals LOB% was about all that went wrong for the Cubs this year. The Cubs got revenge in the NLDS.

So what the hell happened? Are these teams closer to what they were the first 100 games of the year or what they’ve been the last 67 games? Let’s take a look.

Hitting

You’d think, “oh the Cubs have a huge advantage on offense over the Mets”. But you’d be wrong. The Cubs are a three true outcome team, only they don’t hit as many home runs as you’d think. In fact, the Mets hit more home runs (177) than the Cubs (171) in 2015. 

The Cubs do walk a lot, 9.1% (2^nd highest walk percentage in MLB) and they strike out a ton, just under 25% of the time (highest in baseball by far). Their .305 BABIP has saved them a bit since they only have hit .244 as a team, second lowest mark (and tied with the Mets) in the majors this year. The Cubs aren’t bad at getting on base, but they aren’t good either. And the wRC+ of 96 and wOBA of .313 are both below average. 

As you’d expect from a team that lead the Majors in strike outs, the Cubs swing and miss a lot. They were last in MLB in contact rate (74.8%) and ‘led’ the Majors in swinging strike percentage (11.8%). The concern for the Cubs is that there wasn’t a ton of power to back up such high whiff rates. The Astros, as a comparison, had a K-rate that was 1.47 standard deviations beyond the mean and hit the second most home runs in the majors; the Cubs’ K-rate, meanwhile, was 2.4 standard deviations above the average but were barely above the league average in the number of home runs. What saves them is that they walk a lot (and that slightly high BABIP). 

However, the Cubs line up was completely transformed when they called up Kyle Schwarber in the middle of July. He gave them a third big bat in the lineup, making life that much more difficult for opposing pitchers, and they’ve effectively played over .700 baseball since.   

2015 Offensive Z-Scores: Cubs and Mets

Team	HR	R	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	BsR	WAR
Cubs	0.23	0.01	0.50	1.70	2.40	0.23	0.60	-1.27	0.47	-0.35	-0.02	-0.05	1.48	0.99
Mets	0.42	-0.09	-1.42	0.29	0.36	0.35	-1.20	-1.27	-0.51	-0.24	-0.41	0.35	0.60	0.77

The Mets offense is not nearly as poor as one would be led to believe. They’re around average/below average in every offensive category. They don’t get on base as much as the Cubs, but that’s partly explained by a low BABIP (.287) and of course, a lower walk rate. However, the Mets actually had, ever so slightly, a higher slugging percentage as a team and bested the Cubs in wRC+.

Like the Cubs, the Mets lineup was transformed right around when they got hot by trading for Cespedes and calling up Michael Conforto. Conforto should start in left field, there really is no reason for Cuddyer to ever see the field other than as a pinch hitter. And for all the whining about the Mets bats in the first few months of the season, Wright, Granderson, Duda, Cespedes, d’Arnaud, and Conforto all had wRC+ above 130 this year. The Mets offense, while maybe not overly dynamic, is pretty good.

If anything, people are overrating the Cubs and underrating the Mets offenses. While the Cubs are better at getting on base, some of that was driven by BABIP luck. The only offensive area the Cubs clearly have an advantage is on the base paths. The Cubs are also an excellent base running team.

Defense

The understated and under-reported story about the 2015 Cubs has been their defense. The Cubs have been and excellent defensive team this year, and while they aren’t the Royals, a team UZR of 23.4 is one standard deviation above the mean. Bryant looks like he’ll be a good/solid third baseman for the next few years. Coghlan has been excellent in left and Montero has been good behind the plate. But much of the Cubs excellent defense has been driven by Addison Russell who is out with a hamstring injury. This is a big deal.

See the rest of the Cubs D hasn’t been that great: Castro has been fine at short/second and Fowler okay in center. But Soler has been bad in right. If Schwarber plays, it will be in replacement of Coghlan, and he is not a good fielder. And Russell’s replacement in the lineup is Javy Baez. We’re working with really small sample size here, but Baez hasn’t been very good at second or short in the majors. There is a huge step down in UZR from Russell to Baez. Something to watch.

There’s not a ton to say about the Mets D. There isn’t an excellent defender on the team, though Granderson is decent in right and Conforto looks solid in left. Cespedes isn’t a center fielder and their middle infield is slightly below average.

But what looked like the Cubs biggest advantage, defense, is now closer to a push with Russell out and Schwarber in left.

Starting Pitching

These are two excellent staffs. Man are they good.

The Cubs were second in the majors in Ks per 9, didn’t walk guys, and managed to keep the ball in the park. They did have some luck on their side, as a .285 BABIP would indicate, but the Cubs starters were pretty good at getting ground balls (where Russell would then scoop them up) and had the lowest FIP and xFIP in the majors. The story of the Cubs in the postseason has been their bats, but the reality is the Cubs had the best starting rotation in the Majors this year. They were led by pitching and defense.

The Cubs are going to throw Lester-Arrieta-Hendricks-Hammel in the NLCS. Hammel gave the Cubs a career year and Hendricks might have too. Arrieta had a second half for the record books, but for as great as he was, he had a BABIP and HR/FB rate where are unsustainable, however, Arrieta induced an insane number of ground balls in the second half of the season. Lester’s numbers don’t look nearly as good as Arrieta, but he was very good this year. This is a very good staff.

2015 Pitching Z-Scores: Cubs and Mets

Team	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR	ERA-FIP
Cubs	1.66	-1.67	-1.18	-1.11	0.35	0.57	-0.14	-1.40	-1.84	-1.96	1.74	0.16
Mets	0.74	-2.29	-0.44	-0.75	0.92	0.47	-0.21	-1.25	-1.28	-1.32	1.32	-0.54

But it might not be as good as the Mets. New York will throw Harvey-Syndergaard-deGrom-Matz and oh hey they all strike out more than 8.5 batters per 9. The Mets staff this year was very good leading the league in walks per 9 (ie the lowest rate). And sure, part of the reason they didn’t walk anyone was because of Colon, but Harvey, Syndergaard, and deGrom all had fewer than 2 walks per 9. These guys put the ball in the strike zone and most hitters can’t do much with it. And like the Cubs, they sported excellent ERAs and FIPs.

Bullpens

The Cubs bullpen has been pointed to as the weak point of the roster, but it’s actually been pretty good since Travis Wood was moved to the pen. Strop has had his struggles, but he’s been good (though helped by a crazy low BABIP) and Rondon has shut the door. One thing to note: the Cubs relievers seem to throw a slider or cutter that they bury into the dirt at about 60 feet. The Cardinals and Pirates could not lay off this pitch. Whatever it is, it’s a good pitch. But if I’m noticing it, so are other advances scouts. Watch to see if the Mets can lay off it.

The Mets bullpen hasn’t been as good. In fact, it’s pretty average. Colon is now in the pen which should help, but the Mets are going to go as far as their starters take them. The moment the bullpen enters the game, the Cubs bats could easily awake.

What Does It Mean?

Before I started writing this, I thought this was going to be Cubs in six. But the now? I’m not so sure. Russell's injury is big.

And... the Mets are a bad match up for the Cubs. New York's starters strike guys out and don’t walk anyone. The Cubs offense is susceptible to swinging and missing while relies on the walk to get on base. While the Cubs offense is more dynamic than it was back in June, the Cubs features five batters that strike out more than 25% of the time (if Soler plays). Sure if they get a hold of one… but this isn’t the Cardinals and their non-strike out producing staff. The Mets rotation might average 11 or 12 Ks a game.

The flip side of course, how are the Mets going to score runs? But here is where having Conforto and Cespedes may make the difference—the Mets lineup is suddenly deep with those two in there. The Mets have, with Duda, six guys with wRC+ above 130, the Cubs only three. Add Russell’s injury and the defensive downgrading the Cubs have in the outfield with Schwarber out there… and things aren’t looking nearly as bright for the Cubs.

Both teams turned themselves into really good teams in the second half. The Mets turned a so-so offense into a good offense. The Cubs meanwhile, grew into themselves a bit. But they also clearly played above their talent level over the last sixty or so games. At some point, teams that play .715 baseball come back down to Earth… I think it’s in the NLCS.

Prediction: Mets in six.

ALCS Preview: Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals

I thought this was going to be a fairly interesting series until I started looking at it a bit.

Meanwhile, I struggle with the Royals. They have an elite bullpen and defense, but everything else is just sort of there. There’s no doubting the results over the last season and a half, but I wonder if they’ve taken advantage of an American League that’s been very average the last two years more than KC being very good..

Meanwhile, you have the Blue Jays who under-performed the first few months of the year, partly to luck, partly to a poor pen, and then exploded since the end of July. This really does look like the best team in baseball on paper—the hint of an unstoppable force.

Let’s break it down. (Also check out Ben Lindberg’s preview here)

Hitting

The Jays were clearly the best hitting team in baseball in 2015. You ready for this? The Jays lead the league in home runs, runs, ISO, on base percentage, slugging, wOBA, wRC+, and WAR. Oh and they finished second in walk rate and batting average. And for good measure, they’re a pretty good base running team and don’t strike out.

I love this team. Gets on base, hits for power and doesn’t strike out? I love them.

2015 Offensive Z-Scores: Blue Jays and Royals

Team	HR	R	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off
Blue Jays	2.15	3.45	0.20	1.70	-1.11	2.26	1.79	2.55	2.76	3.02	2.78	0.96	2.92
Royals	-0.77	0.61	0.90	-1.59	-2.63	-0.37	1.79	0.58	0.39	0.47	0.35	-0.03	0.38

The Jays offensive really is a sight to behold… three standard deviations above the mean in both runs and wOBA? Two standard deviations above in home runs, ISO, OBP, slugging, wRC+? And one standard deve under on strike outs? I mean, there’s so much to love here.

The Royals on the other hand, aren’t a bad offensive team, but other than having the lowest strikeout rate in the league, this isn’t exactly a compelling offense. They don’t walk, but hit enough to get on base at an okay rate (both the Jays and Royals have BABIPs around .300 (.298 and .301 respectively). The Royals don’t hit many home runs, but make up for that a bit by hitting lots of double (3rd in the majors behind, of course, the Jays). It’s a respectable, but fairly average offense.  

Defense

If the Jays have a fairly overwhelming advantage on offense, the Royals have as overwhelming of an advantage on defense. Simply put, no one in baseball can run down the baseball better. KC’s UZR of 50.9 was tops in the league by a pretty wide margin (2.2 standard deviations above the mean). Lorenzo Cain and Alex Gordon go get everything. Alex Rios(!) has had a nice season in right (probably due to Cain if I were to take a guess). And Escobar at short is pretty darn good too. Finally, Perez behind the plate is one of the best in the game… this team is strong up the middle and not bad at all in the corners. They create more outs with their gloves than anyone else in the baseball.

The Jays are fine. Picking up Tulo helped solidify the defense and probably makes it a tad better than what the numbers say. At third, Donaldson is a heck of a player and his glove is a major reason he may win the MVP (MIKE TROUT SKY POINT). Kevin Pillar has been great in center, but this season might be an outlier as he’s never shown anything like this defensively before. Meanwhile, Russell Martin has turned in another fantastic season behind the plate. All in all, the Jays, especially with Tulo, are better than you’d expect up the middle. However, after those four, it’s a number of guys who won’t kill you or aren’t that great with the glove.

Starting Pitching

Both teams added #1 arms to their rotation at the trade deadline which changed (and improved) both rotations. On top of that, the Jays also added Marcus Stroman who missed much of the season with an ACL injury. So if anyone’s numbers should be thrown out, it’s the Jays. That said, let’s take a look.

The Royals rotation is underwhelming: they don’t strike anyone out and they walk more guys than you’d like. They are good at getting inducing ground balls, so it’s a tad surprising the starters BABIP isn’t lower (.300) considering how good of a defensive team they are. And they’ve had some homer luck this season; the Royals starters have the second highest xFIP in the majors this year. All in all, this is not that great of a rotation.

2015 Starting Pitching Z-Scores: Blue Jays and Royals

Team	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR	ERA-FIP
Blue Jays	-1.53	-0.66	0.11	-1.65	-0.17	-0.83	-0.90	-0.28	0.55	1.09	-0.08	-1.66
Royals	-1.09	0.61	-0.02	0.25	0.02	-1.09	-0.97	0.43	0.64	1.22	-0.68	-0.19

It’s a bit unfair to judge the Jays by their starter numbers, but it’s all we’ve got. Mark Buehrle, Aaron Sanchez and Drew Hutchinson started 71 games for the Jays this year: none are expected to make a start in the ALCS (and Buehrle probably won’t be on the 25 man roster). Nonetheless, the Jays had the second lowest K/9 in the majors this year (thanks Buehrle and Dickey!) AND the second lowest BABIP (partly explained by R.A. Dickey’s 214 innings, knuckleball pitchers tend to have lower BABIPs). Put it together and the Jays starters had the second lowest ERA-FIP spread in the majors (that means they got lucky) trailing only the Cardinals. But with Price, Stroman, and Estrada (plus R.A. Dickey), this is a much different rotation than the numbers you see here. But something to watch for, Estrada’s BABIP is .220 this year while Price’s HR/FB% was 5.8%. Both are unsustainable… doesn’t mean they regress in this series, but keep an eye on (though Price already may have had some market correction in the ALDS).

Bullpens

The Royals continue to have one of the best, if not the best, bullpen in the game. It’s sort of the same story as last year: if the Royals have the lead after 6 innings, they’re going to win (probably). Herrera hasn’t been as lights out as last year, but he’s still been very good. Wade Davis continues to be near unhittable (and it’s gone on for so long now, that it’s probably not a fluke). Ryan Madson has been excellent for them and Danny Duffy is around too.

Meanwhile, the Jays have remade their pen on the fly. And it’s not bad now, however, the injury to Brett Cecil shouldn’t be overlooked. Still: Osuna is good and Liam Hendricks has been excellent. The pen overall does appear to be a bit susceptible to the home run… unlike the Royals, the game ain’t over if the Jays are leading after six.

What Does It Mean?

The Royals success this season has been built on catching the ball and holding onto leads in the late innings. Unfortunately for them, they’re running into a Toronto team that isn’t a good match up. The Royals starters walked more guys than you’d like and face a Toronto team that was second in walk rate. Meanwhile, Houston, who trailed only the Jays in home runs this season, hit 9 homers while striking out 58 times against the Royals. You could see the Jays hitting about two home runs a game but striking out at a much lower rate. And there will probably be guys on base when the Jays do go yard. And while the KC defense can chase down most balls put in play, again, the Jays power negates the Royals defense a bit.

On the flip side, the Royals, put the ball in play and don’t strike out a ton; but Toronto’s pitching staff hasn’t relied on strikeouts this season, neglecting one of KC’s major advantages. Plus the Jays, especially with the addition of Tulo, can chase down the ball a bit. No, they aren’t the Royals when it comes to throwing the glove around, but this isn’t the 2015 White Sox either. While the Royals bullpen should hold down the fort for a game or two, I don’t think their starters are good enough to get to the bullpen with the lead the three or four times they need it to happen to win this series.

Prediction: Blue Jays in six.