2014 Predictions

Woah. Been a while. But I've got thoughts a few things lined up. But might as well get the predictions on paper.

I really like the Sox off season. I know I'm not alone here, but Hahn made some really nice moves, selling 'high' and buying 'low' across the board. Eaton, Abreu, Davidson... I like all those moves. But more on those later. I hate bringing back Konerko, but I don't think the baseball guys had too much of a say there. And it's not like the Sox are competing for the wild card or division this year. There are bigger 'wrongs' in the baseball world.

Pitching:

• I think a lot of Sox fans, myself included, thought that the Sox pitching was very good last year. This is a tad misleading. Yes, they were 8th in fWAR in '13, but their ERA was fairly pedestrian. Both their FIP says they were lucky, while their xFIP says they were slightly unlucky.  All told, the Sox gave up the 10th most runs in the AL last year. That's actually not that good.
• The Sox were a bit unlucky when it came to the home run ball last year. They finished one standard deviation above the mean in HR/9 and had a HR/Fly Ball rate of 11.5% which was also above average. Yes, the Cell is a good hitting park, but it isn't incorrect to think the Sox can actually see some regression in home runs given this year.
• Their strikeout and walk rates were both slightly above league average, but nothing that should scare anyone (or get overly excited about). I see them improving on their ground ball rate, and moving on from both Santiago and Peavy probably should help (Reed too).
• Erik Johnson, if he can fit a bit more control, should really be a nice starting pitcher. Paulino had a really nice 2011, if he's healthy and Coop does Coop things... I can easily see the Sox rotation actually being better.
• I'm making an educated guess more than running some sort of model here... I see the Sox giving up between 680-720 runs. I know that's a wide range, but I kind of think they'll be better in part because they won't be running guys out there in August and September just to see what they have.

Batting:

• The Sox offense was awful last year, no need to dwell on it. So the first move of the winter was to sign Abreu. Yay. The second was to bring back Konerko. This made negative sense. "HEY KIDS, COME SEE PAULIE GO 0-4 WITH TWO STRIKEOUTS AND A WEAK POP OUT TO THE FIRST BASEMAN!!!" That's where I thought the 2014 Sox where headed.
• Then Kevin Towers called.
• I can't stress how much I love the Eaton and Davidson moves. I'm overly bullish on both. Davidson’s K% should worry me more, but I’m forgiving because the power is real. Eaton was a great buy low by Hahn.
• Abreu’s gonna get it done. Everything points to him having a number of nice seasons on the South Side.
• Gushing about those three aside, the Sox are a bit of a mess after this. Viciedo isn’t an everyday major league player. I really do hope the Beckham to New York rumors come true. Garcia’s gotta start walking if he’s going to be a decent major league player. Catching is a black hole. Konerko is done. Dunn is Dunn, the less he plays in the field, the more value he’ll give the Sox.
• The Sox did everything horrible last year. They didn’t get on base, they didn’t score runs, they didn’t walk… but I see hope. Eaton will walk. Dunn takes walks. I think Abreu will take a base. Davidson, when he arrives, will take a walk. De Aza’s walk rate isn’t offensive… I think the Sox will put more guys on base and thus score more runs.
• I see the Sox scoring 650 runs this year. This might be bullish, it’s a 50 run improvement. But Vicideo should never see a righty this year. Dunn won’t see many lefties. Abreu alone is should be a huge improvement over Konerko. Eaton should be on base.

All this said, the two big things to watch, imo, will be how Ventura handles the lineup and if the team defense shows improvement. Defense first... it was bad last year. If it improves—and I think it will with Dunn, Konerko, and Vicideo all seeing less time in the field—the Sox might even get those runs allowed closer to 650. That would mean the Sox are a .500 team. I’m not ready to go there, but I can see things ‘breaking’ were they finish above .500.

However, I have little faith in Robin. Last year’s team was bad and made way too many mistakes. If he's giving Viciedo at bats against righties, or Dunn starts against a tough lefty, I'm going to start openly question if Ventura's a major league manager. The Sox are deeper this year, they can play the match-up game every day. Robin needs to show that he can do this.

So all said… I’ve got the Sox winning 75-78 games. I’ll go 77-85.

MLB Predictions:

AL East: Tampa

AL Central: Detroit

AL West: Angels 

Wild Cards: Boston and Baltimore

I don't really like the Angels, but they're not has hurt as the Rangers or A's. I could see those three teams plus Seattle winning the West. That division is sort of a mess. I'm not buying the Tribe again and I don't see the pitching or hitting for the Royals. They'll both be better than the Sox however. Tampa is more of a feeling than anything, same with the O's. 

NL East: Washington

NL Central: St. Louis

NL West: Los Angeles 

Wild Cards: Giants and Reds

Man the NL is top heavy. I have zero faith in that Reds pick, but I think the pitching will be good enough to hold off a banged up Braves team and regressed Pirates. I could maybe see the Mets surprising people? I don't know... very very top heavy league.

World Series:

Dodgers over Rays

The Writing is on the Wall

Sox Record: 28-33; The Sox have a -29 run differential.

Place in the A.L. Central and Games back: Third place and 5.5 behind the Tigers.

Most annoying person in the Sox organization: I am openly rooting for Josh Fields to strike out every time he steps to the plate. I'm not sure I've ever rooted against a Sox player like I've started rooting against Fields. I want him to fail... which is really weird considering he's going to be playing first base a lot over the next month with Konerko hurt.

Member of the White Sox I love the most at the moment: Pods. Seriously, I can't get enough of Pods right now. I said it and it feels good. I have no clue where he came from or why he's good, but he is and I love it. I love it like a high school crush or a spring song.

Rhetorical Question of the Day: The Sox went the inverse of what they needed to do on their longest home stand of the season (4-8) and in the process loss St. Carlos of Quinten and Konerko for the next month. They weren't scoring runs before and they'll probably be scoring less in the next month. So what to do?

If nothing else, for the first time since early May, I'm sort of excited about the Sox again. Weird, but true... so why am I pumped about a Sox team that's going to lose more than it wins from here on out?

Because it's the Sox are going to reload. The 2005 team will be a distant memory by April of 2010. Dye and Thome should start telling Kenny where they want to play the last two or three months of the season. Bobby Jenks could easy be dealt assuming he stops blowing saves. Dotel is all but gone at this point. If Jose Contreras has a few more good starts, I could see a team taking a flyer on him come July.

The only two guys I can't see the Sox trading are Konerko and AJ. AJ stays because they don't have anyone else who can catch four or five times a week this year or next year. Plus AJ's the kind of guy who's more valuable to the Sox than he is to any other team. Konerko isn't going any where because he's a 5 and 10 guy (meaning he has to okay any deal) and the Sox can't take the PR hit of trading away a fan favorite.

Shockingly, even if the Sox unload all those guys... they should be in good shape in 2010. Beckham will move over to second at some point (I pray). Hopefully, Cuban#3 (Dayan Viciedo) can take over third next year. Alexei stays at short and Konerko at first. And with so much money coming off the books, the Sox can make a run at an outfielder (Holiday? Jason Bay? Carl Crawford if he some how hits the open market? Chone Figgens?) to replace Dye next year. And the starting pitching is pretty much in place (they'll need to find a fifth, but that shouldn't be too hard to fill). Plus who knows what the Sox will pick up from the Thome/Dye/Dotel/Jenks?/Contreras? deals.

Of all the guys the Sox have to deal, Dye probably has the most value since he's a hell of a player and can hit. He makes too much sense for the Red Sox or the Mets. And if you're the Rays, don't you take a look at Thome? Same goes for the Angels and Rangers.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out... I'm sure I'll have more thoughts as time goes on...

Jake Peavy a Sox?

Sox Record: 17-22; The Sox have a -28 run differential.

Place in the A.L. Central and Games back: Fourth and 5 and a half out. The Tigers have caught a bit of fire... I'll take a look at them in a few days. I'm just happy the Royals are doing what I told you they'd be doing. Losing. But it's amazing what a two game winning streak can do.

Most annoying person in the Sox organization: Gavin Floyd -- he has sucked even if he's tipping his pitches.

Member of the White Sox I love the most at the moment: Paul Konerko who seems somewhat dead set to save this season. Konerko, Dye, and Buehrle are the only bright spots this year and the only reason why the Sox aren't in fifth. I've also got love for Brian Anderson because that means Brent "I'm not a Major League Player" Lillibridge isn't in the majors at the moment.

Rhetorical Question of the Day: So the big news is that the Sox have reached a deal for Jake Peavy. The deal is done so all that we're waiting for is Peavy to give it the okay. Since Gordon Beckham isn't part of this deal, I really really really really really want Peavy to say yes. I want Jake Peavy to be a White Sox for the next three or four years. However, until it happens, I'm going to hold off on the baseball stuff... [that said assuming Peavy says yes today I expect Peavy to start on Saturday against Pittsburgh. Jake is schedule to start on Friday for the Padres and Richard is schedule to go for the Sox on Saturday].

All this said... there are two reasons I want Peavy to say yes:

1) Because it makes the White Sox better in the short and long term. He's only 27 and has been pretty durable.

2) It would be the most awesome fuck you to Cub fans since those glorious days in October of 2005 (also known as the Month Jesus Came Back To Chicago).

Cub fans have been going around for months as if they are entitled to Jake Peavy even though their farm system is worse than the Nationals. To most Cub fans, the thinking was that it was only a matter of time before the Padres gave in and traded Peavy to the Cubs for nothing. Peavy would be wearing Loser Blue, it was going to happen. It was fact in their minds.

But here comes Kenny Williams getting a deal done for Peavy right under the Cubs nose. It's glorious. If Peavy accepts, he becomes a hero to Sox fans for this reason alone. If he turns down the Sox and ends up with the Cubs, he will then have to fear for the health of his right shoulder. Us Sox fans are crazy bunch. Disliking or hating the Cubs is a necessity... Jake should consider that... would he rather pitch for the White Sox and be loved on the South Side because he IS NOT a Cub or would he rather fear for the safety of his right elbow every day he lives in Chicago? Because if he does ever make it up to the North Side, there will be a lot of Sox fans in Daniel Plainview clothing.

Thoughts on the most bizarre between innings promo ever:

Blackhawks - Down 2-0 after losing an absolute heartbreaker on Tuesday night. The Hawks played with and maybe even better than the Wings, but a mistake by Campbell in OT lead to a 3 on 1 Nordic rush... Barker and Khabibulin had no shot at stopping the break. Great passing from the Wings, and everyone heads back to Chicago tomorrow with the Hawks down 2-0.

Is it over? No. But it doesn't look good. The good news is that the Hawks didn't play over their heads on Monday. They can easily come out there tomorrow and play better. The Wings don't have this series rapped up just yet. Let's hope the Hawks come out flying with the energy from the crowd which is going to be loud. Really loud.

But the Wings are also like the older, bigger, faster older brother... the Hawks always get close, but the Wings all end up winning. It's so frustrating. It makes me hate sports. But if we were to beat the Wings... it would feel so good... and that's why I keep coming back for more.

And two game winning streaks.

An Early Loss That Really Hurts

Sox Record: 12-14; The Sox have a -11 run differential.  

Place in the A.L. Central and Games back: They suck

Most annoying person in the Sox organization: That's it.  I'm done with Alexei Ramirez.  Sent him back to Cuba.  He's hitting .210, he doesn't walk, and doesn't score runs.  He's a disaster after a month of the season.  A complete and utter disaster.  We're at the point where if Brent "I shouldn't be in the majors" Lillibridge took over at short, it wouldn't even be a drop off from Alexei.  Go back to Cuba, Alexei... or start hitting.

Member of the White Sox I love the most at the moment: I've been anti-Konerko for two years now, but I've got to give the guy some props, he doesn't suck this year, he isn't killing the team, and is one of the few 'bright' spots because of this.  He's still over paid and the Sox probably couldn't give him away at this point, but he's had a nice start to the season.

I also much hate for Greg Norton during his time with the Sox about ten years ago now.  Norton air mailed more throws from third in his few seasons than I've seen in my entire life.  This is a sad story , but also one of perseverance, about Norton (now with the Braves) and his family.  Big ups to Norton and my thoughts go out to him.

Rhetorical Question of the Day: I hate to get all over the top, but that loss last night is a killer.  Yeah, we're 26 games into the season and the Sox are only 3.5 out of first and the Royals are about as daunting as Ross from friends, but it would have been really nice to not have lost two games to the Royals.  I'm not scared of the Royals, I'm not that scared of the Twins or Tigers... and the Indians slow start looks like it will be a summer long thing.  But you can't let the division get away from you.  And after two disastrous games in KC, the division could slip away if the Sox aren't careful.

Thoughts on the most bizarre between innings promo ever: 

Blackhawks - Wow... one of the more boring hockey games you'll ever seen.  Vancouver was more than willing to not go forward unless the Hawks allowed them.  The Hawks could never get going, including one of the worst power plays you'll ever see with about 6 minutes left in the third.  Brian Campbell, for my money, was the best Blackhawk on the ice last night.  

Lunongo played well and didn't give up too many big rebounds which was really the difference in the game.  Hawks need to come out and take it to the Canucks tomorrow night.  They cannot go down two goals, in other words, they cannot play like they have in the first three games.  I know Lunongo is the best goalie in the world and all that crap, but it would be nice if Khabibulin at least played as well as Lunongo one of these games.  I'm not blaming him, but a 'stand on his head' performance wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.