Stray Observations in the Middle of May

Sox thoughts... bullet style

• If Viciedo is going to walk at a decent clip, he’ll be a useful baseball player.  Since coming off the DL, he’s walked six times.  He also has 8 hits and 2 home runs. Sure it’s an insanely small sample size, but it’s a really positive sign.

• Adam Dunn isn’t hurting the Sox that much right now. I know this probably isn’t popular, but he’s walking again and the dingers are and probably will continue to happen. We know what we’re getting with Dunn: strikeout, walk or homer. He’s been doing that the last few weeks. Stop complaining/booing.

• Speaking of Unpopular Opinions... Konerko is hurting the Sox more than Dunn.  Also Konerko looks like he might be done as a ballplayer. In almost 150 plate appearances this year, everything is way off his career averages in a bad way: strikeouts up, walks down, power down. I know he’s been banged up a bit, so if this is an injury put him on the DL. But it’s likely it isn’t an injury and we’re watching a 37 year old guy play out his final season in the majors.

• Keppinger has me officially thinking about giving Morel a chance. WHAT COULD GO WRONG? Who am I kidding... odds are Keppinger sits when Beckham comes back and we continue to ride the luck of Gillaspie. Which is the right move.

• Chris Sale’s start on Sunday was one of the best pitching performances I’ve ever seen in a White Sox uniform.  His game score of 92 ranked him third in the “One Hitter, No Walks” Performance of Last Week:
• Miller: 98
• Harvey: 97
• Sale: 92
• Lester: 90
• Wainwirght: 89 (true, not a one hitter or non-walk performance but still pretty good)

• While the starting pitching has been great, it should be pointed out that the bullpen hasn’t been nearly as bad as I think most people assume (myself included, bullpen ERA is 3.46). If the hitting comes around, and it’s shown signs of life...

• I don’t think the Sox can or will catch the Tigers.  But the struggles of the AL West (ie the Angels) does leave a wildcard possibility depending on how the next few weeks ago.  The loss of Floyd really does hurt the Sox chances, but if Danks can return even somewhat effective in the next three weeks, let’s just say crazier things have happened.  But yeah, let’s get to .500 before I start actually mapping out wild card scenarios.

Floyd Hurt; Are the Sox Down for the Count?

Well, I’m not sure the Sox can recover from this one.

As you’ve probably heard by now, Gavin Floyd is out for the year and will undergo Tommy John surgery today. The good news for Gavin is the success rate for TJS is pretty good, so he will probably pitch effectively in the major leagues again. The bad news for the White Sox is that, they’re probably done in 2013.

I know, you’re probably saying something like, ‘Gavin Floyd, important piece to the White Sox season? He stinks most of the time.’ And there is some truth to that, Floyd’s never become a the #1 or #2 starter which warranted his number four overall selection in the 2001 Draft.* However, with the Sox, Floyd developed into a steady #3 or #4 starter, giving the Sox a lot of innings, strike outs and depth in the rotation since 2008.

* Interesting draft, btw.  Mauer, Prior, Floyd and Teixeria all went in the top five. Then no one of major note until you get to David Wright as a sandwich pick.  I think it’s safe to say that Floyd’s had a better career than Prior, however Prior’s 2003 makes it a fun conversation.

Floyd came into the year penciled in as the #3 starter and if Danks recovered, would drop to the #4 spot. You could figure that a healthy Floyd could give the Sox 11-14 wins, a solid K/9 and 180 innings.  You could also figure that Floyd would fall victim to a big inning in 60% of his starts usually because he can’t find the plate (Floyd does seem to have bad luck as his ERA and FIP/xFIP spreads have been interestingly unlucky with the Sox). These are the starts one tends to remember with Floyd.

But with Floyd now done for the year, the Sox are now left search for roughly 150 innings at a pretty high quality.

In a perfect world, Danks comes back from his shoulder issues, slides into the #3 spot and the Sox get a little bit better.  But this is overly optimistic.  Odds are Danks won't be who he was (at least right away) upon his return, which still may be a few weeks away.  

And it leaves the Sox with Dylan Axelrod in the rotation.  Axelrod has been great so far, but this won’t continue (see his .248 BABIP and 7.4% HR/fly ball ratio). Eventually Axelrod is going to get rocked, and it’s not going to be pretty.

The dream I had in my head for a while now is that the Sox ride out the Axelrod starts, Danks comes back, and then 2013 White Sox really get going in May and June as the 

bats come to life

weather improves. But Floyd’s injury pretty much kills this. Gavin’s been, on average, a 3 WAR pitcher, and sure Danks could easily give the Sox that... but again, they’re stuck with Axelrod as the fifth starter.

Now maybe the move is this: Danks returns in June, Axelrod moves to the pen and Santiago moves to the fifth spot. I like this move a lot more**, but again, this assumes that Danks is i) healthy and ii) as good as he was pre-injury.  These are two big assumptions.

** Am I oddly confident about Quintana? I sure as hell am! I don’t know what it is, everything about him screams “Oh no!” but he’s been pretty good for 170 innings now.  And his K/9 is up this year, which might be because everyone is striking out, but whatever! Quintana as a #4 starter isn’t the end of the world in the AL Central.

My worry going into 2012 was that the Sox wouldn’t be able to replace Buehrle’s innings.  Then Chris Sale happened. (And really, it became the Quintana show once Danks went down). Unless Santiago turns into an average starter, that’s not happening this year.  The Sox just don’t have anyone in the pen or in minors to give them the 150 solid innings they’ve just lost with Floyd’s injury.

This team already has dug themselves into a hole, one that only got bigger by blowing Sunday’s game against the Royals while the Tigers swept the Astros.  They are dangerously close to being in big trouble. Now, they’ve got to replace 150 innings, plus about 30 more until Danks comes back (if not more), at around a 3 WAR level.  For as great as Coop is, I don’t think he can pull this off.

Maybe it’s time to start planning for 2014.

And speaking of 2014... Floyd’s injury makes it a better than 50% chance he’s back with the Sox next year. Sure, maybe someone like the A’s or Rays gives him a incentivized one year deal, but seeing that he’ll start his rehab with the Sox, I have to think that Floyd—who is expected to be back around the 2014 All-Start game—might just re-up with the Sox in ‘14. It’s far too early to say if the Sox should consider this, but I’d make them the favorites to bring back Floyd next year.

The Perfect Lineup (aka trying to make lemonade out of lemons)

Keith Law’s piece today on why teams should bat their better hitter second got me thinking:

 

1) Why didn’t Robin stay in the two-hole more often during the 90s?  I think it was the ‘92 season that the Sox batted him second a whole lot, and that was a fun year.  While Law would argue—rightly so—that Frank should have hit second, Robin in the two-hole made a lot of sense then.  I never got him hitting fifth.  Whatever.

 

2) How should the 2013 Sox lineup be ordered?

 

Currently the Sox, when healthy, goes something like this:

 

De Aza

Keppinger

Rios

Dunn

Konerko

Viciedo

Alexei

Flowers

Beckham

 

Below is my ‘ideal’ lineup for the Sox, and when compared to the ‘actual’/expected line up, it’s pretty darn close if flawed in thinking.

 

‘Ideal’

De Aza

Rios

Dunn

Konerko

Viciedo

Alexei

Keppinger

Flowers

Beckham

 

De Aza is easily the leadoff guy, so no problem there.  Rios is the Sox best hitter these days, so this is a no brainer. Dunn for all his struggles, ends up hitting third because he usually can get on base and give the Sox power.  As the second best hitter, Konerko should be hitting clean up... so the first four spots aren’t all that tough.

 

But then... oh wow.  This is where the Viciedo not being very good kills the Sox*.  Vicideo can’t get on base but does have pop.  That gives him the leg up on the next two guys who don’t have as much power.  I’ve always had a soft spot for Alexei, so he gets the nod over Keppinger. Alexei has a tad more power, but both guys are very similar hitters.  (BTW, I get batting Keppinger second—it’s old time thinking as he’s someone that puts the ball in play—but he shouldn’t be batting second even if he was hitting).  

* Viciedo isn't very good and he plays left field.  That's a problem for the Sox in a nutshell... they don't get the production out of left that most teams get. By the end of last season, it was obvious. Little has changed this year. A decent left field bat would completely transform the Sox.

Flowers makes far too many outs to bat higher in the order, he’d be an interesting 9th hitter however.  But the Sox have Beckham to do that, and by that I mean make outs with no power.

So the bad news is the Sox lineup construction isn’t so glaring horrible that it’s costing them games.  This is not a Dusty, Cozart and Votto situation (even an old school guy like Dusty has no excuse hitting Cozart in the top half of the Reds lineup).  So there really isn't a fix the Sox can make other than getting Rios into the two-hole, and as Law points out, that might swing a single game over the course of a season.  The Sox problems are much bigger than that.  They have limited hitters, and if a few of the good batters slump/go unlucky... well you get the April the Sox have drudged through.

Happy Lee Elia Day!!!!

It’s only been 104 years since they won the World Series.

The greatest rant in sports history happened 74 years into the drought.

Lee Elia... what are your thoughts on Cub fans?

http://www.leeelia.com/elia_tirade.html

http://www.leeelia.com/lee_elia_br.mp3

Ladies and Gentlemen, Cub fans!

Make sure you’ve got headphones on (or at home).

Viciedo to DL; Tekotte Called Up

The Sox placed Viciedo on the DL this morning with an oblique strain.  You’re not going to believe this, but he hurt it while (over)swinging at a pitch on Thursday.

Blake Tekotte was called up to replace Viciedo on the 25-man.  I don’t know much about Tekotte as the Sox got him over the winter from San Diego, but Keith Law sees him as a 4th outfielder and seems to like him.  Sickles said the same thing last year when he was in a loaded Padres system, but didn’t even crack the top-20 of an unloaded Sox system this year.  Tekotte hasn’t done much in two very short cups of coffee in San Diego but he does appear to have a little speed and I read rumors of a decent glove.

Viciedo started hitting the ball a bit last week, but he’s been bad so far this year.  This isn’t that surprising as Viciedo was probably the worst left fielder in the majors last year, and things haven’t changed much this year.  No walk, no glove, can’t hit righties who play left field are not only easy to replace, they’re totally expendable.  Viciedo is expendable save for the 5 or 6 at bats he gets each week against a lefty.

I’m guessing that Tekotte and Danks will split the at bats, however they’re both lefties so I’m not sure how Robin will manage that. Danks is starting today for what it's worth.

This isn’t that big of a loss for the Sox, you could even say it’s a gain if Danks and Tekotte hunt down every fly ball hit to left.  But Danks can’t hit and Tekotte is unproven in the majors.  Neither guy has Viciedo’s power, but the Sox aren’t reliant on Dylan’s power either.  I can’t see this costing the Sox much of anything as both Danks and Tekotte probably save the two runs in the outfield that Viciedo would have created with his bat.

If you’re going to have injuries, make sure they’re your not very good players so you can easily replace them.  So far, so good for the Sox on that note.

And Just Like That, We Might Have a Long Season on Our Hands

First, a quick review of the second week of the season:

So that first week optimism ended pretty quickly.  Beckham got hurt.  And then the Sox started losing.  And then losing some more.  Eight games later, a 4-2 start has become a 6-8 record.  I’m staring down the panic button as I type.

So what happened?

Bad baseball.

And the Sox deciding that walks were lame.  One problem, losing is lamer.

The walk totals are ugly.  Prior to last night, Joey Votto, with 21 free passes, had out walked the entire White Sox team in about 13% of the plate appearances. That’s not brutal, that’s unacceptable.

Again, prior to last night the Sox only 18 walks for the entire team—a horrifying 3.9% walk rate.  Viciedo, Keppinger and Gillaspie have all yet to walk this season (Gillaspie did take a free pass last night).

That’s led to a brutal On Base Percentage: .278 good for 29th in the league (the Cubs are last with an OBP of .259).  However, the Cubs (and Marlins, Rays and Mariners who all are near the bottom in OBP) can at least blame bad luck for the main reason they’re OBP stinks.  The Cubs BABIP sits at .259, a full .014 points lower than the Sox.  The same is true for batting average.  Sure the Sox have been unlucky, but they haven’t been *that* unlucky.

Everyone’s going to point at Adam Dunn’s decision to be aggressive and the drop in his walk rate (Cameroon’s piece on Dunn is excellent btw).  And yes, that’s part of it. And yes, it makes no sense for Dunn to change how he approaches at-bats at this point in his career (Shelley Long career move advise!). But De Aza and Konerko are both below where one would expect them to be.  Flowers hasn’t walked since the Sox hit the road.  Keppinger has never been much of a walker, but you’d figured he’d be a little more patient than he has been in the first 13 games.

It’s early.  Things will ‘even’ out a bit.  Dunn probably will start walking more. If not, we might be looking at a season worse than his 2011.  Konerko and De Aza’s slight drop in their walk rate probably has more to do with it being 13 games than any sort of trend.

But the White Sox won’t even be in the discussion of playoff baseball if this continues.  If the Sox don’t get men on base, they’re not going to win many games.

Beckham Hurt; Is Tejada Available?

Well so much for Beckham’s luck... sorry about that Gordo.

Anyway, the Sox just announced that Gordon Beckham’s going to be out for the next six weeks with a fractured hamate bone. I assume (and it’s being reported) that Keppinger will slide over to second and then Gillaspie takes over at third.  

The good news first... Gillaspie should have no problem replacing Beckham’s offensive “production”.

The bad news? Well there are two obvious things and one wait and see.

1) Jeff Keppinger isn’t that good of a second baseman defensively.  Now, we’re not talking Miggy bad, but he’s a step down from Beckham, whose only redeeming factor is that he’s pretty good at second.  However, Keppinger probably can’t do too much damage with the glove in six weeks.

2) The hamate bone is in the wrist and wrist injuries are not so good for hitters.  They tend to linger and, as we saw last year with Konerko, don’t translate well in terms of production.  Beckham, who’s already a poor hitter, really can’t afford to be any worse. A lingering wrist injury might just cause that to happen.

The Sox will call up someone after the game tonight... and let’s hope it isn’t Brent Morel.  However, I’m not sure I want it to be Carlos Sanchez either.  Sanchez, probably the second best Sox prospect, only has 200 plate appearances above high A. Bringing him up to sit on the bench doesn’t make much sense.  So that means it probably will be Morel and well, even as someone who has never been a Morel fan, the last thing he needs is to sit on the bench.  (It’s also worth noting that Sanchez is NOT on the 40 man).

If Miguel Tejada is available... oh wait, he isn’t? Really? Tejada isn’t available? Wow. The Royals broke came with Tejada AND Francoeur? LOL. Okay, anyway, expect Morel to be called up.

So the impact? Not so great assuming that Morel doesn’t get many of Beckham’s at bats and Gillaspie isn’t Andy Gonzalez/Brent Morel. It hurts the Sox defense, but it’s really hard to say it’s that big of a deal considering it should only be about a 35-40 game injury.  What stinks is that Beckham’s luck might actually even out this year... but alas, we’ll have to wait until June to see if that’s true.  Bummer.

First Week Observations

Take all of this with a gigantic, CHRIS DAVIS FOR MVP gain of salt:

• Tyler Flowers looks like an improvement over A.J.
• Yes the K’s are high, but the walk totals are nice.  The power is there as I suspected (I know, way to go out on a limb).  His BABIP is .429 and that won’t continue, but if he keeps that walk rate around 10%, the Sox will do well.

• If Gordon Beckham’s luck is good this year...
• Okay, so no power so far, but he’s putting the ball into play and they’re turning into singles.  That’s good and the the complete opposite from last year when he couldn’t buy a hit and a lot of it was bad luck. Gordo deserves a year where balls fall in for him.

• Alex Rios is good at baseball
• I’m sure there were a lot of people who felt that Rios couldn’t put up another 4 WAR season.  That was probably being unfair to him, as he’s been an above average/All-Star player more than he hasn’t.  Sure he stunk up the joint in ‘09 and ‘11, but between ‘06 and ‘12 Rios had two bad seasons and five good to great seasons.  The thought, by some, that ‘13 Rios was going to be ‘not as good’ was silly.  And Rios is making those people look silly after six games.

• Sox still have left field problems
• Game winning home run or not, Viciedo hasn’t shown much in the first six games.  The Sox still have a bad situation in left.

• Alexei is back, comrades
• That is an excellent first week from everyone’s favorite Cuban shortstop. He made a few nice plays in the field and he's not off to a slow start for once.  One question, is his beard inspired by Fidel or by Lincoln?  Either way it’s a great beard. I will be monitoring and providing updates on its greatness.

• Nothing to say about the pitching so far
• Sale’s the only guy with more than six innings, so it’s hard to comment on anyone.  I guess you can say with Sale that there have been too many fly balls, but if he has even better command than last year, he’ll be fine.

• Bunts
• Sadly, I’ve only caught one game in full on TV because of all the day games and weekend errands.  But apparently the Sox are bunting too much. They need to stop this.

Taking four out of six from the Royals and Seattle is what they needed to do.  Good start to the season... no complaints here thus far.

Black Hole Sun

In 2007, Andy Gonzalez was given 188 innings at third base and went on to be the worst baseball player I’ve ever seen in the majors.  I’m not alone. Gonzalez did what no one thought was possible—make Sox fans miss Greg Norton. Sorry, wrong Greg Norton... this one.  Anyway, Norton struggled to throw a baseball to first from third and was a so-so hitter when not facing Randy Johnson.  But somehow, some way, Andy was worse.  Videos of their horrendousness at throwing a ball from first to third probably exist somewhere, but I can’t find them.

For two months, the Sox third base situation was Andy-Gonzalez-isque.  Brent Morel started the year at third with some optimism.  After all, he finished 2011 hitting a lot of home runs in September which lead to people writing TOTALLY INSANE THINGS at that time, and hilarious to read now.  In April and May of 2012,  Morel was horrible.  Like worst regular in the majors horrible.  A wRC+ of 10 (TEN!) will do that.  Morel didn’t walk, didn’t have any power (something like three extra base hits) and struck out a lot.  It turns out he also had a bad back, which actually makes sense given how awful he was.  Even poor 2007 Andy Gonzalez wasn’t as bad as Morel was in 2012.  Then again, poor Andy Gonzalez didn’t have a bad back.

While Morel was being horrible, the Padre released Orlando Hudson who I advocated the Sox to pick up (you’ll have to trust me), then they did.  I figured Hudson couldn’t be worse than Morel, and I guess Kenny agreed (or at least that’s how I remember the conversation). And Hudson wasn’t worse than Morel, a wRC+ of 48 is greater than 10.  And the defense might have been a tad better too.  But Hudson sucked, even when he was winning a game (sort of).

But the Sox kept winning in April and May and then into June... and Kenny realizing that the Sox weren’t going to win anything if this continued, so he went out and made a slick move, picking up Youkilis from Boston for Lillibridge and Stewart.  Youk didn’t turn out to be great shakes, but he was a huge improvement since he could hit even if his glove wasn’t great.  He didn’t walk as much as I thought he would, but for a guy that’s starting to decline and was sort of banged up as it was, Youk gave the Sox what they needed at third, someone who wasn’t going to lose them games.  I enjoyed the short Youkilis Era on the South Side, even if it’s probably going to be remembered like the Griffey Era... forgotten.  But Youk was unlucky with the Sox (BABIP of .257, way below career figure), gave the Sox decent power (Youk’s ISO was ten times higher than Morel’s in 2012 LOL), and played decent enough D at third (in fact, other than Moustakas, Youk gave the Sox the best third base defense in the division last year).

The Sox however, declined to bring Youkilis back, passing up on bringing him back for $13 million.  Youk ended up signing with the Yankees for $12 million.

Before we ask, “Should the Sox have brought back Youk for $13 million?” Let’s address the man who’s going to be playing third this year: Jeff Keppinger.  The Sox brought Keppinger in for the next three years for $12 million.  He probably had a career year with the Rays last year, and while the Sox didn’t over pay, they did have pay for Keppinger having a solid ‘12, probably having to give him an extra year.  However, Keppinger is probably a slightly below average major leaguer, which compared to Brent Morel, makes him a huge upgrade.

Keppinger doesn’t walk, but he doesn’t strike out either.  He doesn’t have much power, however, playing at the Cell 15 home runs isn’t out of the question.  Keppinger has mainly played second in his career, however he’s shown to be a decent third baseman (he’s capable at second, but Beckham is probably the better defender).  He should hit 12-15 home runs and give a slash line around .300/.340/.400.  Not great, but it’s better than Morel, who was the only other option.

However, Keppinger apparently can’t throw... which is a problem.  If Keppinger spends time on the DL, the Sox are screwed, as Conor Gillaspie is having the spring of his life and, while he’s still youngish, probably will hurt the Sox if Keppinger spends, oh, a month on the DL.

But let’s assume that Keppinger is and will be fine, that the shoulder problem is just ultra cautious spring training whatever... are the Sox better at third base with Keppinger over Youkilis?

No.

Now, maybe the Sox get 150 games from Keppinger and would have only get 90 out of Youkilis... in that case, they’re probably better off.  However, Youkilis probably could give the Sox 125 games at third, playing slightly below defense and hitting something like .260/.375/.475.  I’m probably bullish on Youk, but I see a guy whose power isn’t gone and got unlucky.  The guy I think Youk can be is probably a 3 to 4 WAR player.  That guy is worth $13 million.

Now it could be argued that the money the Sox saved going with Keppinger (about $8 million) has been spent elsewhere.  But other than resigning Peavy, it’s hard to find where the Sox spent the money they saved at this moment... if this gives Hahn a few million to play with in June and July to find a left fielder, then I’ll be more okay with letting Youkilis walk.

That said, the Sox are better off at third base this year than they were last year.  The Sox -0.1 WAR was third worst in the majors last year, and frankly, probably the second worse as I’m not totally sold the Indians D was *that* bad.  And if it wasn’t for Youkilis, the Sox would have easily had the worst production out of third base last year.  With that sorry fact staring Hahn in the face, he signed Keppinger, figuring he won’t hurt the team, and by that alone, will help the team.  

As crazy as it sounds, the Sox go into 2013 probably two wins better at third base compared to last year.  You could talk me into three games better.  That’s a somewhat major improvement.  And if Keppinger can sort of reproduce what he did last year, the Sox might be staring at four wins better.  

So, the Sox in 2013, have managed to find a major league serviceable option at third base.  Meanwhile, poor Team Puerto Rico is stuck with poor Andy Gonzalez manning third base.  Then again, Andy Gonzalez, worst baseball player I’ve ever seen, knocked the US out of the World Baseball Classic...

Sigh.

Changing of the Plate Guarders

Okay, so this was going to be the first post... but then the Sale thing happened, so this got pushed back.  But prior to that... I hadn’t been thinking much about the Sox this winter.  I wanted them to go get B.J. Upton.  I wanted them to then go after Justin Upton. Neither happened.  They did sign Jeff Keppinger which didn’t make me excited.  They filled out the bullpen with a cheap arm (Matt Lindstrom)... and that was it.  That was the offseason.  There wasn’t much to talk about.  

So we head into 2013 without AJ for the first time since 2004.  I thought letting AJ go was the right move, even if he didn’t sign for much in Texas.  

Basically the 2013 White Sox are the 2012 White Sox only without AJ but with an actual major league player at third base.

And now we’re here... with spring on the horizon and a White Sox team that isn’t much different from 2012, yet feels a bit foreign since AJ Pierzynski is gone.  I can’t blame the Sox for letting him walk, however, a one year, $7.5 million deal would have been totally acceptable and you have to wonder why the Sox let AJ walk if that’s all he got.  But let’s start here, at catcher, and come back to third base and the rotation later.

That means Tyler Flowers is the #1 guy behind the plate, and well, we’ll see.  Flowers has pop, and he shouldn’t struggle too much to replace and surpass non-2012 Pierzynski power numbers.  However, Flowers strikes out... a lot... like once every three times he comes to the plate.  And that’s not so good, especially since his walk rate dipped last year to under 8%.  However, when we equalize everything, AJ is a career .325 wOBA while Flowers comes in around .315 over the last two years.  Don’t look now, but Flowers’ offense should be able to replace 2005-2011 Pierzynski.  Offensively, what Flowers lacks in batting average, he makes up for in power and—probably, hopefully—walks.  

But we’re talking about baseball, not the 2012 AL MVP race, so we need to look at defense also... and well, it’s not close. Flowers has graded out much better behind the plate by UZR and when it comes to catching base stealers it will be hard to be as bad as AJ is behind the plate.  Pierzynski has sat around throwing out about 25% of base stealers over the last five years and teams have never ever been shy about running on AJ.  He’s not the worst at throwing guys out and slowing down a running game in the AL, but he’s one of the worst.  However, considering that he wasn’t able to throw anyone out or slow anyone down even with Mark Buehrle throwing once every five days... yikes, maybe he was the worst (but to be fair, his numbers didn’t drop last year without Mark and he did also have to catch Jose Contreras and Freddy Garcia).  Flowers showed improvement in nailing guys last year, and hopefully that will continue.  Throwing out one out of three runners is going to make everyone think twice about stealing second, something AL teams haven’t had to worry about in forever against the White Sox.

So this is going to seem crazy, but Flowers might actually replace Pierzynski’s value in 2013.  It’s highly doubtful he’ll come close to 2012 AJ, but last year was the outlier of outlier.  Pierzynski wasn’t going to hit 28 home runs this year anyway.  Most likely, 2013 AJ will be like 2005-2011 AJ... about a 2 WAR player.  And with Flowers providing an upgrade in defense while delivering more consistent power... we’ll it’s not crazy to think that he can’t be a 2 WAR player this year.

Speaking of those 28 home runs from AJ last year... Why did AJ Pierzynski hit so many home runs in 2012?  At 36, last year was Pierzynski’s 11th full MLB season.

He set a career best in homers with 27, flying by his previous career best in 2005 of 18.  Pierzynski also had his best full season walk rate, however, it was still pitiful at 5.4% which is only about a point higher than his career average of 4.1%. However, his K rate was well above his career average and, at the same time, his power numbers are through the roof.  This isn’t uncommon to the theory, though I’m not sure if it’s been proven, that players who aren’t known traditionally as power guys, when their power does go up, so do the strikeouts. 2012 AJ fit that criteria (do note, I’m not sure this has actually been proven.  Take Jose Bautista, he cut down on his strikeouts as he started hitting a ton of home runs).

But back to Pierzynski, his BABIP was below his career average, while his batting average stayed about the same as his normal mark, as was OBP... but then when you look at his slugging, it sticks out as the outlier of outliers in his career numbers.  AJ went on to also post
full season bests in ISO, wOBA and wRC+.

So... AJ hit for a lot more power last year, and at the same time saw a spike in his K rate.  He played about as much as usual, and AJ always played a lot for a catcher.  There's a case to speculate that he was juicing, but you can also say that AJ's always been a pretty big guy and instead of focusing on making contact, he attempted to kill the ball in order to one last good contract contract.

But let's dig a tad deeper: line drive rate is about the same (1.5 points higher than his career average), ground ball rate a tad down (3.9 points below his career average), and fly ball rate a tad higher than career average (2.4 points above). Oh wait, what's this?  A 18.6% home run to fly ball ratio... exactly twice his career average of 9.3%? I think we found the reason to Pierzynski’s power surge in 2012.  AJ's fly balls left the yard last year at a rate that was twice his career average.  He hit a few more fly balls, and a lot more of them went over the fence.  Pierzynski’s previous high in HR/FB was in 2005, which also happened to be his previous career high in home runs.

So 2012, AJ either (i) swung for the fences and thus making a little less contact but hitting the ball harder, or (ii) he got lucky, or (iii) he's got a little extra in the tank, or (iv) the hot summer led to his fly balls carrying just a tad bit more.  No one paid him for his 2012 production in 2013, the Rangers are paying AJ as if he’ll be about a 1.5-2 WAR player.  He was much better than that last year.  However the Rangers, and all of Major League Baseball, don’t think he’ll do it again.  And they’re probably right in assuming that.