Rios Dealt

The Alex Rios Era ended on the South Side on Friday.  I’m not sure it ever really began.

Rios was never great, sometimes very good, usually fine and in 2011 horrible (and I guess in 2009 also). You could say he never lived up to expectations, but I’m even sure what they were considering the Sox got him for free in August of 2009.

Rios did/does everything well but nothing great. He can run, he has some pop, he’s okay at getting on base and he can field. However, he’s not outstanding in any one of those areas and he always leaves you (or me at least) wanting a bit more. There's nothing wrong with this of course, but it also is what it is.

But if you ignore 2011, he was a very useful player for the Sox and while never a bargain, was paid as one would expect for a 3 WAR player.  But since he does nothing outstanding, he doesn’t feel like he’s fairly compensated. I’m not sure if that makes him underrated, but on a team where he’s the, say, 4th or 5th best bat in the lineup, you probably have a really good baseball team.  The White Sox really never got to that point during his tenure here which is not his fault—the 2010 team was probably the closest, a decent DH away from winning the AL Central in all likelihood.

So what does this mean for the Sox?  We don’t know who they’re getting back, but everyone assumes it’s Leury Garcia. He’s 22 and plays up the middle (short, second and even a little center). However, he doesn’t walk and strikes out a lot. So he’s going to fit in too well with the Sox*.  

*Seriously, would it kill the Sox to obtain a guy who gets on base once in awhile?

So it’s impossible to say if this was a good or bad deal for the Sox. But I think getting a probably major league player (again, assuming it’s Garcia) while getting out of Rios’ contract was a good move. Not great, but a solid if unspectacular move (much like Rios).  Rios goes to a Ranger team that could use his jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none talents; I like the move for Texas.

And it frees up money for the Sox too. Hahn has just cleared $25 million off next year's payroll by trading Rios and Peavy.  That’s a big deal when you remember that Floyd and Konerko are also coming off the books this winter.  The Sox will have some money to play with, the question is: is there anyone to go after and if so, should they?

I’ll look at this more at a later date, but the reality is, probably not.

But Hahn does seem to have a plan... and if he’s thinking, what I’m thinking... well it’s an awesome plan.  But more on that later.

Pre-Trade Deadline Thoughts

Thoughts on the Three Guys Most Likely to be Traded in the next 24 hours or so...

--With a possible Jhonny Peralta suspension* looming, the Tigers need a shortstop. I’ve already argued they need a shortstop who can field anyway, but if Peralta is going to be suspended, then they REALLY need a shortstop. Enter Alexei.  He can field.  The bat is done, but it won't kill you down in the order and since he can still field, he’s being paid fairly.  It’s not a steal by any means, but it’s not a bad contract either. And if you’re asking me why I’m trying to help the Tigers... I don’t know.

*My two cents on the Biogenesis stuff: MLB is way out of line and needs to slow their roll. I’m not saying I support PEDs in baseball, but unless these guys have tested positive, I’m not a fan of what they’re doing, which is the baseball equivalent of McCarthyism.

--It’ll be interesting to see if the Sox trade Rios and if so for what.  I’m all over the place in trying to figure out his value: a decent bat and a good fielder.  The good is that Rios has value, the bad, it’s not value that’s usually highly regarded.  And on top of that, he’s owed a good chunk of money next year with a team option in 2015.  That said, I looked at a bunch of past deals involving All-Star/near All-Star outfielders:

• [2006] The Milwaukee Brewers traded Nelson Cruz and Carlos Lee to the Texas Rangers for Julian Cordero (minors), Francisco Cordero, Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix.
• [2006] The New York Yankees traded C.J. Henry (minors), Jesus Sanchez (minors), Carlos Monasterios and Matt Smith to the Philadelphia Phillies* for Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle.
• [2009] The St. Louis Cardinals traded Clayton Mortensen, Shane Peterson and Brett Wallace to the Oakland Athletics for Matt Holliday.
• [2011] The New York Mets traded Carlos Beltran and cash to the San Francisco Giants for Zack Wheeler*.
• [2011] The Houston Astros traded Hunter Pence and cash to the Philadelphia Phillies for a player to be named later, Jonathan Singleton (minors), Josh Zeid (minors) and Jarred Cosart. The Philadelphia Phillies sent Domingo Santana (minors) (August 15, 2011) to the Houston Astros to complete the trade.
• [2012] The Philadelphia Phillies traded Hunter Pence to the San Francisco Giants for Seth Rosin (minors), Tommy Joseph (minors) and Nate Schierholtz. (2012)

Lee, Abreu, and Beltran are all better hitters, and thus are bad comparisons even if they couldn’t field at Rios’ level.  Holliday could, but was also a much better hitter.  Those trades were also all when those guys were in the last year of their deals.  

The first Hunter Pence trade (2011) he was hitting better than Rios, but isn’t the same fielder and was having a fluky season to begin with.  However, if the Sox are able to get a package similar to that of the Astros got, I’d be very happy. But it’s probably unreasonable that the Sox could turn Rios into two top 100 prospects—which the Astros did.  However, once you factor in age (Rios now is four years older than Pence then) and the contract the value of Rios is probably a top 100 prospect, especially if the Sox send/take on money in the deal. A top guy in the top 75 seems like a fair deal, especially when you consider that Rios isn’t a rental nor is his contract dead money.

*The Phillies did horrible in this deal; I still can’t believe the Giants gave up Wheeler for two months of Beltran.

--While I have no clue what the market for Rios will end up being and if they'll trade him, it appears nearly certain that Peavy is going to be traded.  His market if much easier to figure out since the Cubs just traded Garza, who is essentially the same pitcher but whose contract ends at the end of the years. Peavy is signed for next season at a reasonable/bargain price if he stays healthy.  I thought the Cubs did well, but not great, in their deal for Garza, and it’s reasonable for the Sox fans to think the South Siders can do better.

A few other deals with guys similar to that of Peavy:

• [2012] The Detroit Tigers traded Brian Flynn (minors), Rob Brantly, Jacob Turner and 2013 compensation draft pick round B to the Miami Marlins for Omar Infante, Anibal Sanchez and 2013 compensation draft pick round A.
• [2010] The Arizona Diamondbacks traded Dan Haren to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for a player to be named later, Patrick Corbin, Rafael Rodriguez and Joe Saunders. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim sent Tyler Skaggs (August 7, 2010) to the Arizona Diamondbacks to complete the trade.

The Tigers got Sanchez and Infante and in return gave up a top 40 prospect (Turner).  Peavy isn’t as young as Sanchez, but their numbers are similar and Sanchez was in a walk year.  Meanwhile, Peavy’s older than Haren was when he was traded nor is Peavy as good, but their contract situation are more alike. Skaggs and Corbin was a very nice return for the D-Backs.

Basically, the Sox should get a prospect back who is in the top 50, but really probably in the 30-45 range depending on if anyone else is involved in the deal.  Personally, I think the Sox should go for quality over quantity.  They’ve got a bunch of C/C+ guys in the system.  What they lack is top end talent. Adding two or three guys in the top 100 of all of baseball would be huge and set this team up for 2015 and beyond.

Oh and it’d make the rest of this season and next year a lot more fun to watch too.

First Week Observations

Take all of this with a gigantic, CHRIS DAVIS FOR MVP gain of salt:

• Tyler Flowers looks like an improvement over A.J.
• Yes the K’s are high, but the walk totals are nice.  The power is there as I suspected (I know, way to go out on a limb).  His BABIP is .429 and that won’t continue, but if he keeps that walk rate around 10%, the Sox will do well.

• If Gordon Beckham’s luck is good this year...
• Okay, so no power so far, but he’s putting the ball into play and they’re turning into singles.  That’s good and the the complete opposite from last year when he couldn’t buy a hit and a lot of it was bad luck. Gordo deserves a year where balls fall in for him.

• Alex Rios is good at baseball
• I’m sure there were a lot of people who felt that Rios couldn’t put up another 4 WAR season.  That was probably being unfair to him, as he’s been an above average/All-Star player more than he hasn’t.  Sure he stunk up the joint in ‘09 and ‘11, but between ‘06 and ‘12 Rios had two bad seasons and five good to great seasons.  The thought, by some, that ‘13 Rios was going to be ‘not as good’ was silly.  And Rios is making those people look silly after six games.

• Sox still have left field problems
• Game winning home run or not, Viciedo hasn’t shown much in the first six games.  The Sox still have a bad situation in left.

• Alexei is back, comrades
• That is an excellent first week from everyone’s favorite Cuban shortstop. He made a few nice plays in the field and he's not off to a slow start for once.  One question, is his beard inspired by Fidel or by Lincoln?  Either way it’s a great beard. I will be monitoring and providing updates on its greatness.

• Nothing to say about the pitching so far
• Sale’s the only guy with more than six innings, so it’s hard to comment on anyone.  I guess you can say with Sale that there have been too many fly balls, but if he has even better command than last year, he’ll be fine.

• Bunts
• Sadly, I’ve only caught one game in full on TV because of all the day games and weekend errands.  But apparently the Sox are bunting too much. They need to stop this.

Taking four out of six from the Royals and Seattle is what they needed to do.  Good start to the season... no complaints here thus far.