Are the White Sox overvaluing Brandon McCarthy?

It’s pretty clear, and been pretty clear, that Kenny Williams will not trade Brandon McCarthy. Even though the Sox don’t have a place for him in their rotation for the foreseeable future, Williams has stated roughly 3,498 times that McCarthy isn’t going anywhere. The way Kenny tells it, McCarthy is the second coming of, well Johan Santana. Even the way the Sox are handling McCarthy makes this comparison all the more obvious.

McCarthy turned 23 a few weeks back, yet already has 120 innings in the majors under his belt. He’s been up with the Sox all year severing mainly as a reliever. Out of the pen, McCarthy has been decent, posting a 3.91 ERA in 53 innings (he’s appeared in 34 games, starting one of those games). The Sox have themselves a young, tall (he’s 6’7”), arm who can hit the low to mid 90s with a good curve, and pretty good control. McCarthy has only walked 17 batters this year (5 of which were intentional), not bad for someone who is only 23.

There’s no doubt that McCarthy has talent, and he’s going to pitch in the majors for a long time if he doesn’t blow out his arm. But is he a front end of the rotation sort of guy? The way the White Sox tell it, he is and will be some day soon. And the fact that they have him ‘stashed’ away in the pen despite the fact that Javier Vazquez has been about as useful as, oh, James Baldwin (who doesn’t love big innings?!?!?!), and Williams refuses to trade him for anyone, one has to wonder… why? If McCarthy is the second coming of a Santana like pitcher (or Justin Verlander?), then why put him in the pen to clean up Vazquez’s mess? Why not start him if he really is as good as you say he is?

Because that’s how the Twins handled both Santana and more recently Liriano. The Sox are taking the same approach. They have McCarthy to spot start as need, if needed… otherwise let him learn in the pen. If it worked for Santana and Liriano, it will work for McCarthy. But there’s a problem, when Santana was 23 he exploded onto the scene. Coming out of the pen that year (2002), Santana dropped a 2.99 ERA in 108 innings (he also started 14 games, came out of the pen in 13). But more importantly, his K/9 inning rate was off the charts: 11.38. (The biggest question is why the Twins sent him back to the pen in 2003).

BUT if you look at a 22 year old Santana in 2001, suddenly you see what the White Sox are talking about; let’s make this simple:

Name	Year	Age	Innings	ERA	K/9	K/BB
McCarthy	2005	21/22	67	4.03	6.45	2.82
McCarthy	2006	22/23	53	3.91	5.60	1.94
Verlander	2006	23	130.1	2.69	6.08	2.44
Santana	2001	22	43.2	4.74	5.77	1.75
Santana	2002	23	108.1	2.99	11.38	2.80
Liriano	2006	22	107	1.94	10.51	4.31

It’s pretty clear that Liriano and 2002 Santana are off the charts when compared to McCarthy. But, a 23 year old McCarthy does compare very well to a 22 year old Santana. The Sox are probably hoping that McCarthy will a sort of leap this winter and we’ll see McCarthy’s numbers jump though the roof, in a perfect world like Santana.

But even more telling is that McCarthy’s numbers check out very closing to Justin Verlander. Verlander is a few months older and starting, but if you look at those K/9 and K/BB numbers… not that big of a difference (if you factor McCarthy’s numbers last year). Verlander’s ERA is much better, but that might be because of McCarthy’s role coming out of the pen.

So basically the White Sox have their own young arm wasting away in the pen right now. Imagine if the Tigers let Verlander ‘learn’ in the bullpen this year? Would they be 8.5 games up on the Sox and Twins? No way. And also remember the Twins had Liriano in the pen until Carlos Sliva walked into Terry Ryan’s office and pointed a gun at his head. The Twins have been playing like the 2001 Mariners since Liriano has been put in the rotation.

Yeah, we all know where I’m going with this now… it’s time for the White Sox to put McCarthy in the rotation. Between Mark Buehrle’s Carlos Sliva impersonation over the last month and Javier Vazquez pitching for the Yankees two years after he was actually with them, it’s time for the White Sox to get McCarthy in the rotation. There’s no reason McCarthy should be coming out of the pen. He’s got too much talent to be wasting away there considering the ‘job’ Buehrle and Vazquez have been doing.

Back to the main point in all this, yes, the White Sox and Kenny Williams probably value McCarthy a little too much. BUT, they are also misusing him at the moment. Trading him would be foolish since, the White Sox need him in the rotation, well, Saturday.