Looking Towards 2016: Right Field

As we enter the home stretch of the '15 season, it's time to start evaluating where the Sox are set and where they could use an improvement.

The good news is that there are fewer holes than last winter. The bad news, there are still some gigantic holes to fill.

The pitching has been excellent, (4th in the Majors in fWAR) and should continue to be in 2016. While there are decisions to be made, mainly Samardzija, no major fix is needed.

The only position that I think the Sox are completely set at for 2016 is first base. Jose might not have been as great this season, but he’s been very good. He'll never win a Gold Glove, but defense at first is luxury, not a necessity.

After that? The Sox have questions. My plan/hope is to run down everything other position.

Today: Right Field

I went into this with an open mind, but it only takes about thirty seconds of looking at Avi Garcia's stats to realize that he can't cut it in right.

I can hear the 'wait and see' crowd. Avi's still only 24. But everything else points to a guy who really isn't much of a baseball player. The Catbird Seat probably put it best:

Avisail is about to start facing diluted opposition - weaker defenses, quad-A pitcher's, raw prospects, etc. - as minor league-caliber players will be making up a bigger proportion of what he's facing, both as pitchers and defenders.  In light of that context, arguably the worst thing for the White Sox would be if Avisail went on a hot streak against this diminished competition and inflated their hope to the point where they don't try to upgrade on RF this offseason. Because they absolutely do need to upgrade RF if they want to justify the "We're not selling!" position they have awkwardly announced.

Avi's already reached 1,000 at bats and has put up a -1.2 WAR. That's not good.

Avi's bat is passable, but still not great. A career .271/.318/.387 is fine, but not great at the same time. The power hasn't developed (ISO of .126 in his career) and he doesn't get on base. You could live with this up the middle, but Avi's in right. Running out a career wRC+ of 94 for 550 more at-bats in 2016 will put the Sox behind the 8-ball.

For as 'meh' as Avi's bat is, his glove is worse. His UZR this year is at -12.9 and Defensive Runs Saved is -10 this year. These are horrible figures. He's among the worst defensive right fielders in the game, only without the bat to make up for it.

The reality is, there actually isn't a case to be made that Avi should be back playing right field next year. He's on track to be the worst everyday right fielder in 2015. The Sox are kidding themselves if they think he puts it together next year. Even if the bat improves, the glove won't.

Avi's not an everyday right fielder. It's really as simple as that. It's time to move on.

VERDICT: The Sox need a right fielder in 2016 and should direct resources in that direction.

7/29/2015: Buy, Sell, or CarGo?

Sox:

I’ve lost track of weeks due to the All-Star break and a busier than usual schedule. But I have Sox thoughts!

-- This is easy to say when they’re on a five six game winning streak, but I’m kind of enjoying this Sox team. The season, as a whole, has been disappointing and not a ton of fun. But the team itself, day-in and day-out, is kind of enjoyable.

Yes, the offense is bad. Abreu at-bats being really the only reason to tune in much of the year. Though Eaton and Melky finally turning it around, has helped make the last month or so much more ‘watchable’. Yet still, there are too many half innings where I turn my head to do something for a few, what feels like seconds, and when I look back, we're’ coming out of commercial break and the Sox are back playing defense. That’s bad. But I guess it makes the game go quick.

But the Sox pitching has been fantastic. And it’s been a joy to watch most every day, especially since Rodon has joined the rotation.

Sale has been amazing, and is on track to have the best season by a Sox starter in decades. Samardzija has come on strong after a so-so start, thanks in part (I think) to better defensive play. Quintana continues his unflashy excellence. Rodon, walk issues aside, has the stuff of a #1 guy in the majors; his slider is beautiful when it catches the plate. And Danks… well he’s given a few nice starts. And the bullpen has been so much better than last year.

-- Another enjoyable thing about the Sox this year? Geovany Soto. Every game he plays is a much watch because of his (probable) yips. I’m mesmerized by this.

-- So are the Sox buyers or sellers?

Even with this recent hot streak, the Sox need to go 38-26 to reach 86 wins (entering the game Wed. July 29th), which is probably the bare minimum it will take to get the second wild card. It’s feasible that they play .594 baseball from here on out, but it’s not exactly likely considering how bad the bottom of the order is.

The Sox, if they hold on to Samardzija, have the pitching to be in games. It’s been the offense that’s been the problem, #shocking!. What’s different about the current winning streak than the one before the All-Star break is that the offense has been really good the last week or so. These are positives.

But even after passing the Tigers last night in the standings, four teams stand in between the Sox and the second wild card slot: the Twins, Orioles, Rays, and Jays. While passing the Twins and Rays do not appear to be heavy lifts; catching, passing, and holding off the Jays and, to a certain extent, the O’s is a much tougher task.

The Jays have more talent that the Sox. The Tulo trade only made them better. They’re going to find a starter by Friday (maybe even Samardzija). They’ll be tough to pass and hold off. And the Sox are a bad weekend away from slipping behind the Tigers and Rangers again.

Hoping that the Angels or Astros crash is probably wishful thinking. Either team would have to play below .500 ball the rest of the way to fall out of the wild card race. I could see it happening with Houston, but they’re probably a safe bet to win 88 games and make the wild card, even if they play so-so from here on out.

Back to the Sox… I see them as sellers since they still need to play really well to be a serious wild card contender. BUT I wouldn’t mind seeing the Sox make a move that could help this year and beyond.

The Sox have glaring holes at second, short, and rightfield. We should probably add DH and third, but Saladino, in a small sample size, has done enough for them to look to those other positions first. They’re not going to find a shortstop at this juncture. I’m not sure who’s out there to help at second. So that leaves right field.

If the Rockies are going to unload CarGo, the Sox should kick the tires. He’s owed $43.5 million (roughly) over the the rest of this season and the next two. He’s an injury risk. And he was really bad this year until about a month ago (though Melky can relate). But he’s been on fire recently and has a darn good track record prior to his heavily injury filled 2014.

That said, I don’t think the price for GarGo will be all that high considering the money he’s owed, his poor 2014 and start to 2015, and his injury issues (he was great in 2013, but only played 110 games and missed most of last season). If the Sox take on most of his salary, they can probably get him for a lot less than people assume. I’m talking maybe Avi Garcia, Trayce Thompson, and a mid-level pitching prospect. And even that might be an overpay considering the money owed.

The Sox already have $89 million committed to payroll in 2016, and they’ll need at least one starting pitcher, a catcher, and a shortstop (though they may try to fill this internally). CarGo at $17 million would push the Sox committed salary to $106 million, which then means Danks is (most likely) still in the rotation and Erik Johnson (or someone else in the minors) rounds out the starting staff (unless ownership okays them spending $120 million plus next year). They can make CarGo work, but it limits the off season at the same time.

It’s possible the Sox send someone (Danks? LaRoche?) to Denver to offset some of CarGo’s cost; Rockies still save about $20-25 million and the Sox are only on the hook for $20 million more in guaranteed money. However, any cost savings to the Sox means they’re giving up better prospects; the deal quickly becomes Spencer Adams, Garcia* and Thompson/Hawkins for CarGo.

*If the Sox trade for an outfielder, I feel that Avi Garcia pretty much has to going the other way. Avi’s only 24 but he's a minus defender, and he probably needs a new start with another organization at this point (as pointed out by Jim Margalus I think). He’s probably not an everyday major leaguer, but maybe someone else can talk themselves into fixing him.

CarGo is probably worth two wins over Garcia, maybe three if he keeps up this tear he’s on. His bat slides in perfectly at the cleanup spot (I’m assuming Abreu’s hitting third, if he’s hitting second, CarGo bats third). And while the Sox would still have a problem at the bottom of the order, CarGo’s bat and glove would be a major improvement for the Sox.

With the current roster, I see the Sox winning anywhere form 77 to 87 games right now (yes, that big of a spread). CarGo won't make a difference if the Sox are around .500; but if they push the 85 win needle, he could be the difference in the wild card race.

Another option is Carlos Gomez, but he’s going to cost more since his contract is much more reasonable and he’s been an elite player in 2013 and 2014. He’s been fine this year and would be an upgrade for the Sox, though I’m not sure who plays right if they trade for Gomez. Eaton’s arm would be an issue there. So pass on Gomez as far as an in-season trade.

-- But again, I more see the Sox as sellers than buyers. However, moving Samardzija may be difficult with Dave Price now on the market and Cole Hamels still floating around.

The Sox are in a nice position with Samardzija. Since they'll get draft compensation for him, any team that wants him needs to 'beat' the value of the pick. If no one can, the Sox can play the last two months of the year with the best starting rotation in the majors and who knows, maybe the offense keeps this up.

But if another GM wants to move a top, say, 75 prospect for Samardzija, the Sox should probably jump on that. The odds are against them making the playoffs after all. And with the core the Sox have, a good winter could put them in a great position for 2016. Adding another prospect will only help in that process.

Sox Week 12: Trade Sale and Abreu? Plus Posner on the Supreme Court and Greece!

Sox

The Sox aren’t the most interesting team in the league—let alone Chicago—right now. They are, just kind of… well… there. They aren’t good. But thanks to their starting pitching, most games are at least interesting.

You’re typical non-John-Danks-start Sox game goes something like this: Sox get good starting pitching, no run support, though maybe a 2-1 or 3-1 lead, only for that lead to be blown by the bullpen or poor management from Robin Ventura. Odds are the Sox will have a chance to add to the lead, but a combo of poor hitting and running themselves out of innings happens and the Sox lose 5-4 or 4-2.

Like I said, not that interesting. More frustrating, pathetic, and sad.

However, last week Fangraph's asked a question which actually makes the Sox interesting: should they trade Sale and Abreu?

Dave Cameron’s thought process is this: the Sox aren’t very good, their moves to be competitive in 2015 haven’t and don’t look like they will work, Sale (and Abreu) are great baseball players, the Sox aren’t going anywhere this year or probably next, so trade Sale (and Abreu) attach a bad contract, and get some great prospects back.

What could the team ask for Sale, a +5 to +6 WAR player who is only owed about $50 million over the next four seasons? Realistically, those four years are worth something closer to $125 to $150 million — and that’s not including the in-season trade markup that applies to every July trade — so if you’re Rick Hahn, you can tell Andrew Friedman that it’s going to cost them Corey Seager and Julio Urias, plus they have to take John Danks as well. If the Cubs want to move Sale across town, great, all it will cost them is Kyle Schwarber, Javier Baez, and Arismendy Alcantara, plus they have to absorb Melky Cabrera in the deal as well.

The Dodger deal is at least interesting, something to think about. The Cubs deal? Yuck. Sale for Schwarber is a steal for the Cubs; see how the Sox develop hitters, Baez and Alcantara would probably strike out 50% of the time.

But back to the proposal, it’s interesting and somewhat fun to think about (if depressing at the same time because it means trading Chris Sale), but the Sox, as disappointing as they’ve been this year, are better off keeping Sale. While the return for Sale could be franchise changing, the likelihood of all the prospects dealt becoming annual 3 or 4 fWAR players through 2022 is unlikely. Moving Sale, who is signed to probably the best pitcher contract in baseball, creates as many issues as it solves.

While the Sox have holes up and down the lineup and 2015 is effectively over, things might not be as bad as it seems. Eaton has been much better in May and June. As pointed out in this South Side Sox piece, Melky is showing life after a disastrous first third of the season. Moving him (as suggested in the Fangraphs proposal as a salary) seems foolish because you're selling low.

Is it disappointing that third, second, and catcher never came together for the 2015 White Sox? Sure. Is it a bummer that short has become a problem and after a nice start, there are still major questions about Garcia and right field? Of course. But the Sox might have an answer to the various outfield issues with Trayce Thompson. As bad as he was defensively in the majors, Micah Johnson’s bat looks promising enough and hopefully his glove will improve in AAA this year. And while Carlos Sanchez has been horrible at the plate, it's still a little too soon to say he can't hit; he doesn’t have a ton of at bats under his belt and deserves another two months in the lineup to make adjustments and we can see what he's got.

It will be an interesting offseason for the Sox. They’re looking at another top ten, maybe even top five pick, next year. But the minor league system, which has ever so slowly been rebuilt, will also start yielding returns (in fact, it’s already begun). They’ll add a young player or two when Samardzija is dealt. Competing in 2016 seems like a stretch still, but 2017? Who knows? And if you may in fact be competing for the AL Central in 2017, why trade Sale in 2015?

Baseball is a weird game, filled with a ton of randomness. Things went really horribly for the Sox in 2015, doesn’t mean they’ll get some luck in 2017 or 2018.

Most Interesting Things I’ve Read this Week:

An Incredibly Detailed Map of Europe's Population Shifts (City Lab): A very cool map and interesting overview of population changes in Europe over the last decade.

The chief justice’s dissent is heartless. (Slate):

John Stuart Mill in On Liberty drew an important distinction between what he called “self-regarding acts” and “other-regarding acts.” The former involves doing things to yourself that don’t harm other people, though they may be self-destructive. The latter involves doing things that do harm other people. He thought that government had no business with the former (and hence—his example—the English had no business concerning themselves with polygamy in Utah, though they hated it). Unless it can be shown that same-sex marriage harms people who are not gay (or who are gay but don’t want to marry), there is no compelling reason for state intervention, and specifically for banning same-sex marriage. The dissenters in Obergefell missed this rather obvious point.

Pretty good take down of Roberts and Alito’s logic failures by Posner.

The Greeks deserved better than this (MacroPolis):

What's certain, though, is that it is yet another moment during this crisis when decision-makers (both Greek and European) have shifted the burden caused by their own failings to the Greek people, who have put up with the economic collapse and tough fiscal measures over the last few years but deserved much better – from all sides.

The entire Greece situation has been a cluster youknowwhat for years. They spend years trying to figure out who was going to take the hit, finally coming to a deal in 2012 that got the banks out of the discussions. But that only bought everyone time, and boy oh boy did things change in January when Syriza came to power. And now we’re here, possibly looking at the end of the EU. There’s lots of blame to go around. But if the EU isn’t willing to save a member country… well it never had a chance. Lots can change, but boy oh boy (twice in a graph!) there seems to be far too much short term thinking going on here.

Week 7: Concern for the Sox? Sure, but not time to bail yet. And links

Sox

Fangraphs has a really nice review of Carlos Rodon’s first three starts. Must read for Sox fans. I went to the game on Wednesday, and Rodon loses the plate way too often. He does work quick and there weren’t too many hard hit balls. The talent is there, but until he finds the plate, he’s going to struggle.

===============

It’s Memorial Day, the point of the season that I start to look at the standings… and it’s ugly.

The Sox are not only 8 games behind a fairly fraudulent Royals team, but they also own one of the worst records in the AL. And to make matters even worse, they now own the worst run differential in the AL.

The good news? The AL is a tire fire. The Royals are playing so far above their heads and talent level, that their fall from grace will be swift and ugly. But they’re probably going to make the playoffs unless they play .400 baseball or something horrible like that. The AL East is Chernobyl-isque: it’s possible all of those teams are average. And the AL West features disappointing A’s, Angels, and Mariners teams. The young Astros hold the lead, but I have my doubts about their pitching.

The Twins and Tigers sit in the Wild Card positions. The Sox sit five games back of them. But more realistically, it’s going to take 89 or 90 wins to make the Wild Card. You might be able to slip in with even 87 considering that the Twins aren’t very good. The Sox need to play .562 baseball (91 win pace over an entire season) to reach 87 wins. Not impossible.

The Sox biggest issue is that they cannot beat the Twins: 3-7 against a team with much less talent than the Sox is a problem. While losing three of four to the Tribe earlier this week hurt, it doesn’t sting as much as once again playing horribly against the Twins. Blowing these games are going to cost them—it already has.

The Sox biggest problem is they cannot score runs. Dead last in the AL with 147 runs scored in 41 games, which works out to 3.58 a game. That’s not good.

The Sox offensive issues are obvious: they don’t walk, they don’t get on base, and they don’t hit for power. While Abreu has been fine if not quite what he was last year, Garcia has started strong even if it’s a bit BABIP inflated, and LaRoche has been perfectly average; the rest of the roster has been bad to horrible.

You could live with Conor Gillaspie’s bat if he was the 8th or 9th worse hitter. Instead he’s somehow the 4th best bat the Sox send out most days. Alexei, Flowers, whoever is playing second, Eaton, and Melky have been horrible. Eaton and Melky are currently in a race to see who can be the worst every day starter in the major leagues.*

*It’s fitting the Sox once again have a few guys in the race to “win” the Worst Everyday Player Award. Past recent finalists include:

2011 Rios

2011 Dunn

2013 Konerko

2012 Kippinger

2014 Viciedo

Could Melky and Eaton turn it around? SURE! They’re not bad baseball players! Eaton’s BABIP is still far below what it was last year and he needs to walk a little more, but he’s been much better in May.

Meanwhile, Melky is walking at the same rate that he has historically. But he too has been bit by the BABIP bug. Of more concern, is what happened to his power. Melky has one homer and two doubles. That isn’t going to cut it.

Both Eaton and Melky are too talented of players to continue to be this bad. We’re seeing some signs of life out of Eaton. We can only hope, now that the weather has finally turned, we’ll start seeing more out of Melky. If those two get going a bit, that sets the table for Abreu, LaRoche, and Avi which should lead to more runs, and more runs will lead to more wins since while this pitching staff is flawed, there is also a lot to like.

Last week was a bad week, and tough to swallow after the fantastic week prior. And while the Sox aren’t in great shape at the moment, they also haven’t dug themselves a huge hole. The playoffs are unlikely, but their not impossible.

Most Interesting Things I’ve Read this Week:

-- From the Charlotte Observer and echoing many here… we have reached PEAK #THANKSOBAMA. Let me tell you this guy…

Lang, a Republican, says he knew the act required him to get coverage but he chose not to do so. But he thought help would be available in an emergency. He and his wife blame President Obama and Congressional Democrats for passing a complex and flawed bill.

“(My husband) should be at the front of the line because he doesn’t work and because he has medical issues,” Mary Lang said last week. “We call it the Not Fair Health Care Act.”

...a 50 year old smoker with diabetes doesn’t buy health insurance and now wants to jump the line and have someone else pay for his health care but blames Obama. Sadly, like the Superfans, these people apparently exist.

--Were Chicago's public schools ever good? (WBEZ)

Really excellent work from the always excellent Becky Vevea.

--Who's Done? Pete Townshend's Ambivalent Farewell (Rolling Stone)

Never change Pete Townshend. Never change.

--How Suburban Are Big American Cities? (538)

Most interesting here, imo, is that our growth cities of the late 20th century (i.e. the South and Southwest) aren’t like most growth cities of the 19th and early 20th century (i.e. East Coast, West Coast, and Rust Belt).

Or to put another way, Phoenix, Houston, and San Antonio look a lot different than New York, San Francisco, and Chicago. Phoenix is very suburban, New York is very urban. This causes both cities to face vastly different policy issues and also have solutions to common policy issues which are unalike.

There are a number of reasons why Chicago might not be growing all that much, but to say “Do what they did in Houston!” might not be an actual policy solution for Chicago because Houston isn’t built like Chicago.

Week 4: Issues with the Back End of the Roation

Sox

Few days late here, so Sox only post going into today’s game.

I’m no fan of Ventura (and I kind of expected them to fire him on Monday, even if it would have been a little unfair), but to blame him for the team’s slow start is a little misguided (granted they’ve won two in a row over the Tigers, thus the panic buttons have been unpressed). Instead, the blame should, in part, be placed on the Sox pitching, which has been poor, and at times, outright horrible. The Sox, collectively, have a 4.51 ERA, which is not good. But they’ve been unlucky with a FIP and xFIP of 3.96 and 3.90 respectively. In fact, the 0.61 spread between the Sox xFIP and ERA, is the fourth highest in the league. Additionally, their BABIP of .322 is fourth highest in MLB and the strand rate of 69.4% is 7th worst. So if you want a bright spot, here it is, the Sox pitchers have been unlucky. This probably isn't a bad pitching staff, just an average one according to the advance numbers.

But digging deeper? The back end of the rotation is a problem. We knew this coming into the season, but hoped that Danks and Noesi would be able to hold their own. So far? Nope. Danks and especially Noesi are major problems.

John Danks:

IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	BABIP	LOB%*	HR/FB
24.2	6.20	5.19	4.47	6.93	2.19	32.9%	.325	57.6%	14.3%

*Left on base %

There’s a case here that Danks has been unlucky. High BABIP, low LOB%, and sort of high HR/FB rate. But his ground ball rate is really bad too. Danks has never been much of a ground ball pitcher, and in 2015’s limited sample size, he’s basically 10 percentage points below his career average. So part of Danks’ struggles are self inflicted.

Interestingly, Danks is throwing his fastball a lot more this year. And it’s only coming in at 88 mph, which granted, is the same as the last few years. But Danks is probably done as a starting pitcher in the majors, we've got years worth of data at this point. The problem continues to be the fact that the Sox have him signed for this year and next. He’s a sunk cost at this point. It was probably time to move on last winter, but again, those two years left on his deal made it hard to do so. So while Danks probably shouldn’t be starting in the majors, he’s not even the guy that would be replaced in the rotation because…

HOLY SHIT HECTOR NOESI SUCKS THIS YEAR.

IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	BABIP	LOB%	HR/FB
14.2	6.75	6.96	5.64	7.98	5.52	34.1%	.225	69.0%	16.7%

If you want a bright spot, his K/9 isn’t bad and his HR/FB is high. But that’s it. He’s walking everyone. He’s not getting ground balls. His crazy low BABIP is unsustainable. And he’s out pitching his FIP (but under performing his xFIP).

Sure Noesi has only started three games, so we’re talking small sample size and all. But he’s been bad in all three starts. He’ll get one more, but after that… with the news that Rodon is starting on Saturday due to the Sale and Samardzija suspensions; I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the last time Noesi starts for a while.