Sox, Angels and Cubs thoughts

Note: I've gotten bad at this... sorry, life is busy.

Sox

--I continue to somewhat enjoy this team. I have no clue why since they’re fairly frustrating, they play sloppy far too often, and are inconsistent. But I’m enjoying it for the most part.

I know it’s said in passing, but it’s pretty hard to take any talk of the Sox being in the Wild Card race seriously. They’re six games under .500 and have most of the league to pass. I, for one, don’t believe they are. And, even as they’ve “faded” in August, I still have no problem with the team not doing anything at the trade deadline, at the end of July, the Sox needed more time to fully evaluate if moving prospects for another bat was worth it this year. Standing pat was (probably) the right move, as I assume a good deal for Samardzija wasn’t there.

--I really like what I’ve seen from Trayce Thompson so far. I'm not sure if he's an above average outfielder, his glove will play a big role in that, but he's hitting lefties. Can't ask more from him than that.

Thoughts on Other Teams...

--I went to the Sox/Angels game on August 12th, and between that, the Sox playing them a bunch the last week and the Angels/Royals game being the Sunday Night game—I got a good look at the Halos and… they’re not that good. Yes any team with BASEBALLGODMIKETROUT is going to be good, but after Trout it’s Pujols and yikes. Kole Calhoun has put together a nice year for them and C.J. Cron can hit. But that’s it. It’s a pretty bad line up outside of Trout, Pujols, and Calhoun. The bottom of the line up sound (and hit) like a bunch of guys that were in “A Bronx Tail” (mainly because Johnny Giavotella is involved).

Their starters haven’t been good but they haven’t killed them either. I did like Andrew Heaney, but looking at his numbers, he doesn’t seem to have a knock out pitch. But all their starters have had luck on their side: all are running low BABIPs.

All in all, this is a poorly constructed team. Their bad farm system is rearing its head right now, as there just isn’t any young guys here after Trout. I’m not saying anything all that new here, but they’ve got a ton of money tied up in a lot of straight up bad vets right now, even the Pujols contract is bad despite Albert hitting well this year. They should probably tear everything down this winter, be bad in 2016, then reload for 2017 as a few contracts come off the books. Problem is I don't see any teams wanting anyone on the Angels after Trout.

The fact that they’re in the race for the Wild Card/AL West is a testament to how freaking good Mike Trout is.

--I watched more Cubs this year than I have in the last five years combined. This isn’t really because they’re fun to watch, it’s more that they’re not absolutely horrible to watch like they have been since 2010.

They remind me of the 2000 White Sox. A team that treads water for 140 games, but goes on a 20 game run where they get hotter than shit, nothing goes wrong, and use that to coast into the playoffs. Like the 2000 Sox, they’re young and a year ahead of schedule.

Like the 2000 Sox, they’re getting some great performances from guys you’d never think they would. Hammel and Hendricks are having Parque/Eldred like seasons. It’s unlikely they’ll ever do this again. There is more talent on the pitching side of things than the '00 Sox: Arrieta* is great and Lester has been fine despite what some idiot Cub fans say. And they’re getting a Herbert Perry type year out of Chris Coghlan right now. Teams need this stuff to happen in order to make the playoffs.

*Arrieta HR rate has increased from last year but still is below league average, and his BABIP has fallen slightly this year. He’s a good pitcher don’t get me wrong, but it’s unclear if he’s a great pitcher or just someone riding a nice 300 inning streak with some luck. But I’m nit-picking here…

The key for the Cubs has been Schwarber, who put the lineup over the top. Rizzo is great, Bryant has been fine, but that’s pretty much it. Schwarber added that third big bat in the middle of the line up, sending some of the brutal guys they’ve been trotting out there to the bench.

That said, this team isn’t nearly as good as their record indicates. It’s as much stars and scrubs as the Sox roster is when you get down to it. There are two key differences: (i) the Cubs are getting career years out of a few arms and Coghlan, and (ii) the bums the Cubs trot out every day can field, unlike most on the Sox.

And the Cubs do field well. Bryant will stick for a while at third which is huge for them. He’s not going to win a gold glove there, but he’s not going to kill them either. The moment his bat ends up in left/right, is the moment he becomes a lot less valuable (unless he fixes his contact issues). Addison Russell, who also has contact issues*, is a goddamn wizard with the glove out their. Montero, Denorfia, Ross, Fowler... all good gloves.

*This is a theme for the Cubs. Nearly every prospect/young player on the team has major contact issues. We’ve already seen Baez all but wash out. Bryant’s BABIP is the only reason he isn’t hitting .220 or something, same is also true of Soler, and even Schwarber has struck out a lot more in the majors than I thought he would. These guys are all young, some will figure it out a bit and cut down on the Ks. But some won’t… KKKKris Bryant is a nickname waiting to happen, if it hasn’t already.

All said, I’m bearish on the Cubs. I think they’ll make the playoffs because a four game lead this late in the season is a nice cushion. But longer term? Where is the pitching? Arrieta's never pitched this many innings, is he a 200 inning a year guy? (I’m guessing yes, but still has to be raised). What happens if Bryant strikes out 30% of the time with a .290 BABIP? After nearly 500 plate appearances, is this who Soler is (yikes if so)? Should we worry about Schwarber’s body as it ages (yes, this is more of a question for 2021)? Who is playing second base next year? Castro is owed $38m over the next 4 year years, who in their right mind is going to take that on?

There are some nice things going on over up on the north side of Chicago, but I remain skeptical. They don’t have as much payroll flexibility as I think most people assume, and nest year they'll need two more starters, an everyday outfielder, and arms for the bullpen. The Cubs are in a good position, but they’re not in a great position. I don’t think we’re looking at a late 00s/early 10s Phillies run or something here, but rather something more like what we've seen from the Nats.

Week 11: Time to Think about the Future

Sox

While some might argue that the Sox are drifting ever so slowly out of contention, let me be the bearer of bad news: the 2015 season is over. To get to 90 wins, the Sox need to play .638 baseball from here on out. That’s not happening. And even if you to argue, “the AL stinks! 86 wins could easily get you into the playoffs” well that means the Sox would have to play .596 baseball from here on out… that’s 96 win pace over 162 games.

It ain’t happening.

So it’s time to focus on 2016. I’m not in the trade/fire everyone mindset. Robin’s gotta go, but what’s the point of firing him right now? And selling low on guys like Melky makes no sense.

But the Sox can start taking a look at guys that may, or may not, be part of the future plans. While we know Tim Anderson is the shortstop of the future, he’s still in AA and developing. There’s little reason to give him burn in the majors (where he’d probably fail). The same is true of anyone who is around 22 or younger… let them to continue to develop in the minors. No need to rush them right now, even if they have a shot of cracking the 2016 lineup. That’s what September is for after all.

I’m talking about guys who have been in the system for a little while, they’re probably 24 or 25, maybe had a cup of coffee even. Either way, I’d rather take a look at these guys sooner rather than later (for the most part).

Trayce Thompson: A favorite of mine for years, things have come along nicely this year in Charlotte. The walks aren’t there this year and there are some legit OBP concerns because of it, but he’s cut down on his strikeouts at AAA. The power has remained and while his batting average may be slightly BABIP inflated, Thompson has some speed. For years people have said his glove is very good. All in all, this is all good, he’s done want he needed to do, for the most part, at AAA. And maybe the walks level back to his A and AA average in the majors.

At 24, another few months in the minors isn’t going to make or break Thompson; he probably is who he is and isn’t going to develop a ton more. In my estimation, he’s proven himself enough at AA and now AAA—specifically cutting the K rate a little—to deserve a call up.

Sure, you’d like to get him in the lineup everyday which won’t be the case with all three outfielders healthy. And while there is nothing wrong with J.B. Shuck, fourth outfielder, he’s also not in the long term plans for the Sox since he has neither power or a good glove; something which Thompson gives you.

Plus getting Thompson three starts a week shouldn’t be too tough. Sitting a bad Melky or an inconsistent Eaton doesn’t change much of anything for the Sox. Plus his brother just won the NBA Title, let’s make this a great week for the Thompson family.

Matt Davidson: A horrible year in AAA in 2014 has yielded an… underwhelming start to 2015 again in AAA. There isn’t a ton to love about Davidson’s 2015, he’s striking out too much, the walk rate is okay, and he’s still struggling to get on base because of all that. But the power is still there, even if it isn’t fantastic.

But here’s the thing… Gillaspie is bad and Beckham is (once again) worse. I fail to see the point of rolling those two out there every day. It’s doubtful that Davidson is the answer at third in 2016, but we might as well find out in the last three months of 2015.

The only issue with calling Davidson up is that there isn’t an obvious move to make on the roster. Releasing Bonifacio makes little financial sense. And in theory you could release Gordon Beckham, but in theory the Laffer Curve works too. Beckham, like Kirk Hinrich, is in the JR Circle of Trust and they will forever haunt my sports life because of it. It’s going to be 2038 and Kirk will be in year 17 as coach of the Bulls while Beckham enters his 11th season as the Sox hitting instructor. Sigh.

But back to Davidson… I’m not nearly as high on him as I am on Thompson, but third base on the Sox is stupid, so why not? Davidson might even clear the low bar of .235/.283/.373 with poor D that Gillaspie and Beckham are giving the Sox.

Erik Johnson: Look who is back? Well sort of…

Johnson was horrible last year in only five starts and was quickly moved back to AAA where he continued to be bad all year. IIRC, he was finally shut down late in the summer as he sure was pitching like someone who was injured.

Johnson’s bounced back a bit this year. The K rate has spiked back up to over 10 per 9 with a solid ERA after an outstanding week. His FIP is even better as he’s been unlucky on the BABIP side of things. The one concern is walks, where Johnson’s BB/9 is higher than you’d like. But all in all, there a solid signs of Johnson bouncing back this year and hopefully putting things back together.

While John Danks isn’t going to be sent packing any time soon, he’d be the guy to go to make room for Johnson. I am pretty agnostic about getting Johnson 12 starts in the majors this year because while Danks isn’t good, he’s also not killing the Sox since they’re not going anywhere this year. Keeping Johnson down in AAA until September makes more sense since he probably has more to work on, confidence to build, than either Thompson or Davidson at this point. However, a good case can be made to move Danks to the pen and let Johnson have a two month run in the rotation… again, because why not? John Danks is at best a below average starter.

But most likely, the Sox are going to move Samardzija sooner rather than later, and Johnson will probably be the guy that takes his spot in the rotation.

Most Interesting Things I’ve Read this Week:

Who’s afraid of America? (The Economist)

And America has been distracted. During 13 years of counter-insurgency and stabilisation missions in Afghanistan and Iraq, the Pentagon was more focused on churning out mine-resistant armoured cars and surveillance drones than on the kind of game-changing innovation needed to keep well ahead of military competitors. America’s combat aircraft are 28 years old, on average. Only now is the fleet being recapitalised with the expensive and only semi-stealthy F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.

Iraq. Again. Ooops. Interesting article on how the US is losing its military edge, partly due to the rise of China (and Russia) and partly because we took our eye off the ball for a decade. Good job, good effort, W.