The French rejected the European Union Constitution yesterday with a strong 55% 'Non' vote. This is a bit of a shocker, but in early March the polls took a huge change in direction and have shown that the French would reject the EU Constitution. Here is an interesting look to what the French said no to, in a short phrase, Europe since the Berlin Wall fell.
So now what happens to the EU? It looks like the Dutch will reject the Constitution on Wednesday. And we can expect to see no votes from the Danes and maybe Poles in the near future. The Constitution as it is looks dead. And trying to rewrite the thing will only be more difficult. But lets face it, this Constitution was complicated, long, and umm, boring. If they want a constitution, may I recommend something a little shorter than a 400-odd article, 191 paged set of laws... really all you need is about ten pages single spaced. It works well, trust me. So the Constitution is dead, but what else?
But the EU? Is the EU in trouble? Probably not, but things could fall apart. Odds are things will continue on as is in Europe. But if for some odd reason France is the only country to vote No, France may have to leave the EU. Or France may leave on her own, and if that happened would others follow? Or would France force a radical reorganization of the EU. Would they go back to the 6 or 10 nation union as it was from the get go? Doubtful, but you never know. But countries like Turkey, Bulgaria, and Romanian must be worried now. Their entrance into the EU is not guaranteed.
But as long as the Euro is around, the EU will be around. Expect the Euro to fall over the next few days, but after that... who knows.