30.4.07

Hope in the Middle East?

I was pretty shocked when I read this today:

An Israeli government commission excoriated Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on Monday for “severe failures” in last summer’s war against the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, setting off a furious debate on whether he should remain in office.

The commission accused him of having decided hastily to go to war, neglecting to ask for a detailed military plan, refusing to consult outside the army and setting “over-ambitious and unobtainable goals.”

We said back in July that Israel overreacted to the events of last summer that lead to war... and apparently Israeli government commissions agreed (not that they asked us of course). But this is a good thing, admitting mistakes, while never fun, do lead to changes and often times progress. Hopefully there are those on the other side of the aisle who are willing to meet the Israelis half way.

Of course, if we were to be cynical, one may assume that this commission wasn't all that independent and were moved by politics, not neutrality. Olmert isn't a very popular figure in Israel right now and this could be viewed as yet another 'swing' at him.

But no matter, it is an admission of something. And something is better than nothing. Hope does spring eternal after all.

Oh, if you have time, this is a pretty good read on Southern whites during the Civil Rights Era.

And this is genius:

26.4.07

It's Been A While Since...

This really was just so great.

23.4.07

Random baseball thoughts…

If he can get to 2,500 hits, Kenny Lofton is a Hall of Famer in my book. Right now, he’s at 2300 which would mean he’d also have to play next year. There’s not reason why he can’t or won’t play next year, so one would assume that Kenny is going to get to 2,500 hits. Right now he sits 17th on the All Time Stole Base list, and with another season after this one, he would probably make it up to 14 on that list… that’s pretty good. 2,500 hits, about 650 stolen bases in an era when taking a bases wasn’t a big thing, around a .300 batting average, a very good OPS, and he was the best lead off hitter of his day.

Ozzie Guillen is trying to drive me insane… let’s just end this Darin Erstad experment right now… he stinks. His average stinks, his on base percentage stinks, and right now the Sox have him leading off. Look, if this was 2000 or 1997 maybe you'd have Erstad lead off. But in any other year between 1997 and today, you would be a moron to have Erstad lead off day after day after day... but Ozzie keeps putting him out there for reasons no one knows.

Erstad is KILLING the White Sox right now. I'm this close to calling everyone on my phone randomly and leaving 5 minute messages about "EFFING DARIN ERSTAD!"

Right now, Erstad is getting on base once ever four trips to the plate, so why have him lead off when the Sox have a bunch of guys that can get on base once every three trips to the plate. Ozzie is pretty much wasting one at bat a game right now.

Why not have Iguchi lead off, bat Crede second, and drop Erstad so far down the order than only Uribe can see him?

Iguchi probably should lead off with Pods hurt. This is nearly a FACT.

If the Sox are facing a lefty, then they can go Ozuna, Iguchi, Thome...

But when facing a righty, why not have Iguchi, who gets on base, lead off, then have Crede who would probably do very well hitting ahead of Thome, bat second. Sort of like Ventura in the two whole back in 1992 or whenever that was. (just looked this up, if Crede walked more, he would be Robin Ventura).

Finally, the Yankees would be like 6-12 without A-Rod, Haters.

19.4.07

Eskin Continued

Well there were enough comments (btw, all of them were excellent and thanks for dropping a line) to just respond to this Eskin stuff with a post, so that's what I've done.

Apparently I was a little off with what Eskin is all about (that's what not being from Philly can do) and if ESPN/AP misrepresented when on in the press conference, there is nothing I can do about that. But it seemed to me that Eskin was trying to get Manuel to go off in some form; maybe not at him, but he was trying to get something. I just rewatched the clip and it’s pretty clear that Eskin is suggesting to Manuel how to do his job and by suggesting how a manager should manage his team isn't what I would call reporting. There's a fine line between second guessing, reporting, and suggesting what one should have done. Where Eskin, all things considered, fell on that line may be a bit unclear, but I think he was trying to make something out of nothing.

As far as Charlie Manuel, as a neutral baseball far from Chicago, I thought he should have been fired last year. The Phillies should have made the playoffs at some point in his tenure, they have the talent to do so. Manuel did nothing with the Indians that would make anyone think that he’d be a good fit in Philly. The 2000 Tribe some how didn’t make the playoffs (explain that one: Lofton, Vizquel, Thome, Manny, Roberto Alomar when he was good, even Travis Fryman, to go along with Finley and Colon… I guess we could rag on the back end of that rotation, but whatever). Leyland’s turn around with the Tigers makes the hiring of Manuel look even worse. Hopefully, for Philly fans, Manuel will be fired sooner than later (nothing says panic than moving Meyers to the ‘pen). I can’t wait until I’m watching some random game on ESPN in early September and I see the stat, “The Phillies have gone 40-18 since the All Star Break… and they’re still two games out of the wild card.”

But back to Eskin, fairly or unfairly, he was my last straw. I'm just getting tired of reporters in sports media either performing hatchet job journalism or attempting to get on TV in some way. And as I said, maybe I'll find a few minutes to put those thoughts all together.

18.4.07

Howard Eskin = Wimp

There's been a lot going on the past few days - tons of emotion and sadness in the news. But I just want to get this off my chest...

Howard Eskin, who ever this clown is, is just another in a long list of wimps and chicken shits in the media who do everything they can to get the story to be about them. Eskin got Phillies manager Charlie Manuel to go off and challenge him to a fight. Of course, Eskin is enjoying his fifteen minutes of "Cold Pizza" fame and probably all excited about his life, but you know
what... Eskin's a chicken shit and a bum.

Eskin can try and come off as the innocent reporter, but you know what, Eskin should focus on doing his job rather than being a blow hard. According to ESPN:

The blow-up started during the postgame news conference when Eskin suggested that Manuel throw a clubhouse tirade to shake up his stumbling team.

Who is Howard Eskin, aka Richard Branson, to tell Manuel how to do his job? I'm no Manuel defender, but Eskin is a reporter, a journalist (or so he claims). So why doesn't Eskin do his job, which is to gather information about the Phillies, ask questions, and write about the team. Yes, that what it means to be a reporter, to report the news, not create it. It seems pretty clear to me that Eskin was trying to get rise out of Manuel. So what if he was successful, it wasn't all that funny, and Eskin of course, like the chicken shit that he is, avoided Manuel's challenge.

Mr. Howard Eskin, if you're goal is to start a fight, you better be willing to finish it... if not you sir, are just a blowhard, chicken shit. Congratulations.

And to be fair, Eskin isn't the only person in the sports media that does this, at this point it seems like reporters and journalists work 'harder' at getting on Sports Center and ESPN than the athletes themselves. This in itself is a major problem and something that maybe I'll tackle another day.

15.4.07

Feist

It's a drag I snag, I'm always in love... I'm woried, I'm always in love.

14.4.07

So Chicago Is Probably Going to Get the 2016 Olympics...

Chicago got the nod from the USOC for the 2016 United States Olympic Bid... this shouldn't be too surprising. I'm sure a few palms were greased and Daley wanted this bid more than a functioning transportation system, quality schools, affordable housing, and other infrastructure issues. But hey, it's a way for Da Mayor to separate from his father. Plus LA just had the Olympics in 1984... that's not a very long time as Olympics go.

Honestly, I am happy but a bit annoyed. I have no clue how the city expects to fund these Olympics (I'm SURE private donors are lining up with billions of dollars). There are pros and cons to the entire bid: it will be the perfect nudge that the South Side needs to continue its revival; and as a South Sider who lives on the South Side... I'm happy about this. The South Loop all the way down to 18th Street has under gone a complete face lift over the last five to eight years. Bronzeville has slowly started to become an up and coming 'hood. The Olympic bid will continue this revival, rebirth, etc further south to Hyde Park and Southshore. This is a good thing.

But on the flip side, the cities infrastructure is a bit worrisome. The CTA is a pain in the ass to ride. There are road and railroad issues that Chicago and the state need to figure out on how to improve since these are Chicago's economic life line. And the City is depending far too much on getting the Olympics. Daley argues that when Chicago gets the Olympics, federal money to fix everything will come flooding in.

This is probably why Daley has wanted the Olympics so badly - for the money. To fix these problems: the infrastructure, schools, housing, and finical shortfalls - Daley is hoping the Olympics are the great fix. But I'm not so sure. It's a big gamble... what if in October 2009 the 2016 Olympics go to Rio (who I would argue are Chicago's only competition at the moment)? What would Daley do then?

Luckily for Daley, he'd only have 18 months in office. If Chicago gets the 2016 Olympics, he can ride out like Augustus... if Chicago doesn't, he'll leave the city's problems to someone else.

12.4.07

Is There A "Right" Economic Model?

I did this last quater and found it pretty interesting... interesting enough to put on the world wide web. My goal was to see if things like political freedom and economic freedom actually result in higher economic success. I'm took 75 nations GDPs and GDP per capita along with
various indexes that rate a countries political freedom, economic freedom, and other factors (like the Gini index). Then I ran regressions in Stata.

I was attempting to see if there really is a 'right' economic model. Is political freedom really linked to economic success?

. regress gdpperheadjuly06 corruption educationindex giniindex

Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 69
-------------+------------------------------ F( 3, 65) = 109.68
Model | 9.1232e+09 3 3.0411e+09 Prob > F = 0.0000
Residual | 1.8023e+09 65 27727596.8 R-squared = 0.8350
-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.8274
Total | 1.0926e+10 68 160669314 Root MSE = 5265.7

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
gdpperhea~06 | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
corruption | 4053.809 356.2398 11.38 0.000 3342.349 4765.269
educationi~x | 164.1843 49.64804 3.31 0.002 65.03035 263.3383
giniindex | -155.0763 71.0601 -2.18 0.033 -296.9931 -13.15944
_cons | -11578.94 5302.031 -2.18 0.033 -22167.83 -990.0573
------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The adjusted r-squared statistic is strong along with all the t-statistics for the variables. It is clear from the results that the corruption index is the most important variable in this regression. The index is ranked such that the higher the number (10 being perfect) the lower the corruption in the country (theoretically a score of 10 would mean zero corruption in the country). From this data, the less corruption there is in the country, the higher the country's GDP per capita. According to the coefficient, a one unit increase in the corruption score would increase a country's GDP per head by over $4,000. Likewise, a one unit increase in a country's education index (a perfect score being 100) would lead to an increase of $164 in the GDP per capita in the country (since the corruption score has a perfect score of 10 and the education index has a perfect score of 100, adjusting the figures so that the education index is equal to the corruption index by multiplying the education index by 10, an increase would equal a $1,641 increase in the GDP per capita if comparing it to corruption). Finally, the Gini Index shows that the larger the wealth inequality in the country, the lower the GDP per capita in the country. In this case a one unit increase in the Gini Index leads to a loss of $155 per person in the country (again to make the numbers in the index equal to that of the corruption index, a ten unit increase in the Gini Index would equal a loss of $1,550 GDP per capita in the country).

My project provides some interesting results and is a good start to building a database that could yield more accurate results. But it is only a start. It would be foolish to make any sweeping conclusions from this econometric project. I am only looking at one period of time and that may be why factors such as political freedom and open or free markets appear to have little effect on a countries GDP per capita. Both political and economic freedom are policies that are implemented at different times, over different periods of time, to varying degrees in every country. Looking at only the most current information may not fairly show the effects of these policies. Of course, it may be the case the liberalized markets and political freedoms do have little effect on a countries economic performance, but in order to make a conclusion like that, I would have to go back and collect data from these index over time (or track them in the
future). Also the use of indexes may raise questions of bias in the data. Indexes, it can be argued, are somewhat subjective in the collection of information and definition of such categories. But for lack of better measurement of ideas such as political freedom, it may be the best way to measure something such as how free the people living in a particular country are.

4.4.07

Randomness to Follow

Fueled by coffee and the extreme funny “Yacht Rock” Series, I’m in the need… the need for speed. Random Thoughts to Follow:

- Seriously if you didn’t hit that link, hit this Yacht Rock link. Anyone with any sort of knowledge of late 70s music will enjoy this. Anything that features Hall and Oates, the Doobie Brothers, Kenny Loggins, and Chris Cross will be funny.

- Thankfully this mess with Iran and the UK is now over and appears that everyone is “okay” or as “okay” one can be after being dragged from Iraqi to Iranian waters and then held as a prisoner for a week or so. But what I don’t get is what was Iran hoping to gain? Besides the obvious, ‘Eff You’ to the US and EU, what was their goal in this? I don’t get it. I really don’t. But let’s just be happy this ended peacefully and no one wigged out like last summer.

- Is it wrong of me to think that Bruce Springsteen is a bit melodramatic?

- I know it’s a bit late for two of these predictions, but I do/did like Liverpool over PSV and Bayern Munich over Milan. As for the games that haven’t been played, I like Roma over Man U and Chelsea over Valencia.

- Picked up a few discs over the past week or so:
* Andrew Bird’s “Armchair Apocrypha” – Aiight. Not bad, but not great. If you’re a fan of Andrew Bird, pick it up, if not, his previous efforts a more enjoyable.
* The Acrade Fire’s “Neon Bible” – Pretty much what you’d expect.
* Albert Hammond, Jr’s “Yours to Keep” – The Stroke guitarist made a really nice and pretty good album. I’ve enjoyed and “In Transit” is one of the better songs I’ve heard in the last few months. Of course it sounds like a Strokes song… whatever.

- Looks like George Will has a kid going to college soon! BTW, the college application process might be the most overrated ‘time’ in a families life if for no other reason than for the most part, the difference between universities are minimal. And on top of that, as more and more people go to graduate school, where one went to undergrad is going to matter less and less.

- I really like Brandon Bird’s art. If I had more money, I’d buy some.

- I’ve been making monthly soundtracks for the past few months because well, I’m nuts. Back in college I started writing down what my song of the quarter was. I have since lost that sheet of paper, but it was sort of a cool idea. What song would play in my head whenever I thought back to that semester – for example, Pete Yorn’s “Life on a Chain” is sort of the unofficial song of the fall of 2001 for me. Then, about two years ago I started thinking about what my song of the month was. And then six months ago, I started making actual soundtracks for the month. This is a bit crazy I realize that. But it’s also sort of cool – what songs sum up that month. The weather and personal decisions play a huge roll in what songs make up that month. April is off to a slow start, but here it is:

“King of Carrot Flowers, Part 1” Neutral Milk Hotel
“Crazy” – Afghan Wigs
“Sugar Magnolia” – The Grateful Dead
“The Big Guns” – Jenny Lewis and the Watson Twins
“Train Leaving Gray” – Mason Jennings
“Charmless Man” - Blur
“Drain You” – Nirvana
“Your Flag Decal Won’t Get You into Heaven Anymore” – John Prine

And in the same vaine, we agree with all of That’s on Point’s selections of Songs that Need to Be Retired from Classic Rock Radio. Bravo guys, you are the Stevie G of blogs.

- Finally something to chew on:
Bush Reorients Rhetoric, Acknowledges Income Gap by Greg Ip and John D. McKinnon. Wall Street Journal. (Eastern edition). New York, N.Y.: Mar 26, 2007. pg. A.2
“Income inequality by most measures has been growing since the 1970s, and is one reason the typical worker's pay has grown only 0.3%, adjusted for inflation, since the expansion began at the end of 2001 while the economy has grown 16%. The share of total income going to the richest 1% of Americans rose to a postwar record of 17.4% in 2005, according to economist Emmanuel Saez of the University of California at Berkeley. And the premium employers paid to hire the most-educated workers has grown.”

The US has a Gini Index figure of 40.8 which is nothing to be proud about. Other countries with similar Gini Index’s: Jamaica, Portugal, Israel, Morocco, Tunisia, Russia, Trinidad & Tobago, Cambodia, Georgia, Ghana, Senegal, Thailand, Kenya, Iran, Turkey, Ecuador, Nigeria. You’re not going to find a industrialized nation with a worse figure… sure Italy and UK aren’t much better than the US’ score; but income distribution in the industrialized world is much better than the US.

Admittedly, the Gini Index isn’t perfect, but it’s the best tool we have in measure income distribution. If the US wants to keep its vibrant and amazing economy, the sooner something is done about decreasing this income gap the better.

2.4.07

Opening Day - A Dying Cubs Fan Last Request

A Dying Cubs Fan Last Request by Steve Goodman



I am a White Sox fan. Let there be no mistake. But I am willing to say, that this is the greatest baseball song ever. Yes it's about the Cubs, but you know what, the lyrics and story behind this song is too awesome. And what better way to kick off the Baseball season than to post about this song? The Cubs haven't won the the World Series since 1908 (yes, 98 years). They haven't gone to the World Series since 1945 (as the song points out). The Cubs are pretty much the worst franchise of all time. But for over 85 years, they were tied neck and neck with the Chicago White Sox. Up until 2005, the city of Chicago hadn't seen a World Series game since 1959 and a World Champion since 1917. I had three grandparents be born, live though the Depression, fight in World War Two, get married, raise families to the backdrop of the Cold War in the 1950s and 1960s and into the 1970s, they saw the birth of grandchildren in the 1980s, and the economic boom of the 1990s. And then they passed away. They never, ever saw a Chicago baseball team win a championship. But then in 2005, the White Sox some how, some way, broke 85 years of losing. But the Cubs continue to lose, year after year - just like paper beer cups - year after year after year after year.

And for Steve Goodman, who had battled leukemia most of his recording life, this was it. He was dying, and this was the Dying Cubs Fan Last Request. First preformed in early 1983, the Cubs had an uneventful 1983. But for the Cubs, 1984 was different. It was a magical season for them. They made the playoffs. The town (so I heard) was a buzz. This was the year the Cubs were going to the World Series. Goodman would die 11 days before the Cubs would play their first playoff game in almost 30 years. He never saw them play a playoff game, but that might be a good thing. He wouldn't have had to live though the Cubs being up 2 games to none in 1984, only to see them lose the next three; losing two of those games in the late innings. This is most memorably remembered by Leon Durham letting a routine grounder go through his legs. And then there is Bartman and Alex Gonzalez in 2003.

Anyway, today marks one of my favorite days of year, Opening Day (and yes, I'll be at 35th and Shields watching the Sox and Tribe today). XRT may be the only radio station that realizes music is a personal and emotional art, in other words they play songs that mean something, they make the connection between the art that music is and the cultural events that surround us. So on certain days they play songs that have meaning. And for Opening Day my junior year of high school, they played this song on our drive to school. There I was listening to Goodman's chorus:
Do they still play the blues in Chicago/When baseball season rolls around/When the snow melts away,/Do the Cubbies still play/In their ivy-covered burial ground/When I was a boy they were my pride and joy/But now they only bring fatigue/To the home of the brave/The land of the free/And the doormat of the National League

I had to smile. It's true, what better way to bring in the new season than by asking Steve's rhetorical questions? Almost 25 years after Goodman put these words down on paper, sadly for Cub fans (and to some degree of schadenfreude for myself) the chorus is still 100% true. They still play the blue in Chicago, the Cubs still play in their Ivy-covered burial ground, and they still are at the doormat of the National League (well last year at least).

I think that day at school, I jolted down lyrics that worked for my White Sox:
Do they still play the blues in Chicago/When baseball season rolls around/When the snow melts away/Do the White Sox still play/In their Baseball Palace of the World?/When I was a boy they were my pride and joy/But now they only bring frustration/To the home of the brave/the land of the free/And the middle of the American League

To my delight, pretty much none of what I wrote in 1998 is still true today.

You can also read this post at my daily music blog, "I Wanna Live With a Musician" Yay.